SF Giants fans can see what the computers can’t: This year’s team is built to win

At some point during spring training, when most free agents had found new homes and most managers were auditioning potential Opening Day lineups, the baseball industry turned its attention to the computers.

Each year, the publication of some combination of PECOTA projections, ZiPS projections and Las Vegas odds gives reporters an easy story. Take note of the computer projections, ask a player and executive their thoughts on those projections and start writing.

Every spring, you’ll see articles like these: “Why the Giants think the computers are wrong,” or “What Giants players think the projections are missing this year.” More often than not, after a 162-game season, the computers turned out to be fairly accurate.

The relative success of these models is what made the Giants’ record-setting 107-win season so stunning last year. And it’s part of what could make this year’s Giants team even easier for fans to support.

The projection systems hated the 2021 Giants. A team that was pegged to win somewhere between 72-to-77 games wound up shocking the baseball universe. Veteran players who were supposed to be “past their prime” enjoyed career years, players we’d never heard of became fan favorites and a team without a 30-home run hitter set a franchise record with 241 homers.

The 2022 Giants probably won’t rewrite the franchise record books. But it might be more fun, because even if the computers don’t know what’s coming, fans do.

In his fourth year as the Giants’ top baseball executive, Farhan Zaidi has created one of the strongest cultures in baseball. His hand-picked manager, Gabe Kapler, is remarkably skilled at carrying out organizational philosophies that challenge some of baseball’s longest-standing traditions. And Zaidi’s 40-man roster is his Mona Lisa, a masterpiece that might not be recognized as such without the proper context.

When 2022 projections were released during spring training, it’s as if the Giants’ 2021 season didn’t happen. ZiPS forecasted 85 wins. Several prominent oddsmakers set an over/under of 84.5 wins. PECOTA picked the Giants to win 78 games, 13 fewer than the San Diego Padres.

It’s never wise to look at a team in April and draw big-picture conclusions, but the Giants’ 11-5 start to the season has compelled us to do so anyway.

The Giants aren’t just winning games, they’re snatching souls.

In a little more than two weeks on the diamond, the Giants have won two series, swept two more and established a clear identity. Zaidi, at the top of the organization, has set a perfect example for Kapler, coaches and players to follow: he does not care what anyone outside the building at 24 Willie Mays Plaza thinks of the way the team is run, and that’s reflected in all facets of the on-field product.

Fans wanted to see slugger Joc Pederson build upon his 3-for-3, two-homer performance in the top of the ninth at Nationals Park on Sunday. With a left-hander on the mound, the Giants gained a platoon advantage sending Austin Slater to the plate.

Fans can’t wait to see top prospect Heliot Ramos in an everyday role. Ramos, who is proficient against lefties but still has work to do against righties, will likely see limited opportunities and spend plenty of time this year at Triple-A to gear up for more chances.

Fans have publicly lamented the Giants’ willingness to have a “bullpen game,” in lieu of using a traditional starting pitcher, but Zaidi can see the hard data that these decisions so easy. The Giants might not win every bullpen game, but last season, their 2.99 bullpen ERA led the majors and this season, their 1.71 bullpen ERA is again the best in the league.

In broader terms, the Giants are constantly looking for every tiny advantage and determining ways to exploit them.

It’s why Giants players are stealing bases and bunting for hits with a massive lead, even if the Padres say they’re offended. It’s why Giants players are taking extra bases and trying to stretch their lead, even if the Nationals feel it’s disrespectful. The Giants will exhaust an opponent’s bullpen and continue to seek out their opponents’ weaknesses, because Zaidi, Kapler and Giants players recognize the further a team is depleted, the less likely they’ll be able put up a worthy fight the next day.

In year four of Zaidi’s tenure and year three of Kapler’s run, Giants fans have developed a healthy appreciation and respect for the way the organization is run. Decisions that didn’t necessarily add up in the beginning –trading for Connor Joe, non-tendering Kevin Pillar and passing on big-ticket free agents– have all led to the current iteration of the team that fans have almost completely embraced.

It certainly helps that Brandon Belt and Brandon Crawford are lovable, productive anchors who have evolved and improved under the current regime. It can’t hurt that Pederson and Carlos Rodón, two prominent free-agent signees, are thriving in orange and black.

The bottom line, though, is at this point of Zaidi’s tenure, Giants fans have seen enough to know that this process, these philosophies and this roster are set up to create sustainable success.

Fans can see what the computers can’t. The Giants are a threat.