Emmy Experts Typing: Can anyone dethrone Michael Keaton?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we look at Best Limited Series/TV Movie Actor, which appears to be one star’s to lose.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! Last week, we did our typing about the many, many, many actresses vying for a nomination in the limited series category — and that was before Viola Davis fired a shot across the bow of “critics” who took umbrage with her Michelle Obama performance on “The First Lady.” So while there remains a good deal of fireworks on that side of the limited series race, I did want to spend today typing about the many, many, many actors who will compete in this field as well. What a time to be alive. Just this week, Best Actor Oscar nominee and our favorite Peter Parker, Andrew Garfield, landed in the Emmy Awards race with “Under the Banner of Heaven.” In keeping with an actor of his online stature doing a press tour, the quotes were choice. Garfield talked about how he was going to take a break from acting (but not really) and confirmed that his “Spider-Man” butt was not enhanced by CGI. You’ve been championing him for a while and it feels like he absolutely will land an Emmy nomination just a few months after competing for Best Actor at the Oscars (and, in the wake of Will Smith‘s controversy, I have to assume a lot of academy members wished they had listened to us and just voted for Garfield). But Garfield isn’t even the top choice at the moment in our odds: That position is owned by Spider-Man villain and once and future Batman Michael Keaton for “Dopesick.” That tracks: Keaton dominated the winter awards and gave enough good speeches to last through two Emmy seasons. Keaton and Garfield feel like sure things to me, but that leaves at least three additional spots for at least 20 additional actors, many of whom are some of the most decorated of the modern era. This is a category where Oscar winners like Jared Leto, Colin Firth and Sean Penn are hanging around with former nominee Samuel L. Jackson — plus folks like Sebastian Stan, Oscar Isaac (pulling double duty for “Moon Knight” and “Scenes from a Marriage”), Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Ben Foster, Clive Owen, Jeremy Renner, Himesh Patel and Miles Teller. I have a confession here: I mainlined “The Offer” this week (its first three episodes are live now on Paramount+) and found Teller absolutely captivating. It’s definitely his best performance in a little bit and pays off all the buzz he had out of “The Spectacular Now” and “Whiplash.” I have to imagine the Television Academy will warm to “The Offer,” a show that makes heroes out of the old Hollywood war horses who helped make “The Godfather,” and Teller’s Al Ruddy is a hoot: a smooth operator who can handle the enigmatic Robert Evans (Matthew Goode, truly an all-timer) and Gulf+Western boss Charlie Bludhorn (Burn Gorman, completely unleashed). But what do you think, Joyce? Have I taken the cannolis too far? Who do you have in this race?

joyceeng: Wow. Have you taken the cannoli and the gun? I still have Batman 1 and Peter 3 firmly in my top two. It kind of feels like the stars are aligning for a Keaton triumph and I personally want to see him win a major industry award (a reminder that this man ought to have an Oscar or more than one nomination at the very least). And after his speeches so far, I am very excited to see what he’d deliver at the Emmys (hopefully another roll onto the stage). Garfield can win, but as I explained earlier this week, I want to see the final two episodes of “Under the Banner of Heaven” before making any moves. It’d also be funny/painful if he lost two big awards to two big ‘80s and ‘90s stars this year. But while you were refusing to refuse “The Offer,” I started climbing “The Staircase” this week and have moved Firth up to third. The show, which drops its first three episodes on HBO Max on May 5, is a good companion piece to the famous docuseries of the infamous case. Similar to how “Under the Banner of Heaven” is not a straightforward murder mystery, “The Staircase” is less concerned with the “Did he kill her?” aspect than it is with exploring the murkiness of the criminal justice system and how the truth is sometimes unknowable. Firth gives a killer performance (#sorrynotsorry) as Michael Peterson, weaponizing his “nice British man” persona to shade the novelist, who could’ve come off as a one-note narcissist and have you being like, “Yup, he definitely killed her.” So I guess I feel good about three spots, but I can still picture any configuration outside of the top two. I also slotted Isaac back in for “Scenes from a Marriage,” not “Moon Knight.” Is two Oscar Isaacs in the race enough to score one nomination?

SEE Emmy Experts slugfest: Will Andrew Garfield continue his ‘Banner’ year with a win?

Christopher Rosen: I haven’t entirely warmed to “Moon Knight”: The show remains inscrutable to me and feels like it’s just getting started as we hit the finale next week. But Isaac is absolutely on fire — the way he makes those dual roles actually feel dual is remarkable. I think this really might be his best performance since “Inside Llewyn Davis.” But I don’t have him in for Mr. Knight; instead, I, too, have Isaac slotted in for “Scenes from a Marriage.” It just feels like the more Emmy-friendly show and that — coupled with the visibility boost provided my “Moon Knight” — makes me think Isaac is almost safe here. Like you, I also have Firth represented. But then we differ: I slotted Teller in there, as mentioned, and still have Jared Leto holding firm as a nominee as well. There is definitely some online fatigue around Leto and his transformations, but I think “WeCrashed” is some of his most mannered work in quite some time. He’s doing a thing — Leto approximates WeWork co-founder Adam Neumann‘s Israeli accent and wears some light prosthetics to make himself look like the entrepreneur — but with a really light touch. Leto hasn’t been this funny and charming in quite a bit. With a strong push from Apple, I think he could get in despite the depth of the field. What do you think of Leto? Is this his time to boof at the Emmys?

joyceeng: It’s still hard to discern how “WeCrashed” will land with voters. I am hopedicting our queen Anne Hathaway, who, as we’ve discussed, is the best part of the show. Leto is no slouch either and his performance is less exaggerated than some of his recent turns, but the court of public opinion will remain down on him for now. Will voters be high on him? Who knows, but I don’t have him in at the moment because I’d rather crash and burn with Hathaway first. My other two picks are Paul Bettany and Sebastian Stan. “Pam & Tommy” feels like it aired 84 years ago, especially now that we have 84 shows premiering in the next month, but I selected Stan in February and have just kept him in. Bettany is deliciously wicked in “A Very British Scandal” and was robbed last year for “WandaVision” (don’t @ me). That’s also partly why I don’t have Isaac in for “Moon Knight” when a more traditional Emmy turn from him is right there, and “Moon Knight” is nowhere as big as “WandaVision” was. Isaac is one of two actors who is eligible for a Marvel series, the other being Jeremy Renner for “Hawkeye.” Renner would make my personal lineup because the exhausted middle-aged superhero is one of my favorite character tropes. This category is littered with men who are in the MCU, but there is one person in the current top six who has yet to be wooed by Kevin Feige: Ben Foster, who’s contending for the HBO film “The Survivor.” You’ve interviewed him and I see you are betraying your practice of predicting people you’ve talked to. Do you not think he can survive this race?

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Can Anne Hathaway and Julia Roberts crash the limited actress race?

Christopher Rosen: Joyce, it pained me to drop Ben Foster for Miles Teller, but this is the life we’ve chosen. I still think Ben Foster would’ve been an Oscar nominee this year were “The Survivor” a theatrical release. As it stands here — as the only major television movie in a race of limited series — I have doubts about its ability to break through the noise. If I do put Ben (is) back in the race, it would be at the expense of Isaac — with the thought process being he could split his own vote and end up with neither nomination. But let’s end here because I think we’re both busy listening to the “Succession” Season 3 score. Honesty, and all. Joyce, we’re going to talk music next week but any early thoughts on this album of nonstop bangers?

joyceeng: I can’t believe we’ve mentioned “Ben Is Back” twice this week. Who would’ve thought? Foster does feel like at best a Hugh Jackman/“Bad Education” type of nom. But, yes, “Succession,” I’m so glad you asked. I am currently in the middle of my fourth cycle through the soundtrack of the day. No skips, obviously. And it may be recency bias, but I think I prefer Jeremy Strong’s “Honesty” cover to “L to the OG.” Something so purely Number One Boy about it. Frankly, the only thing missing is a bonus track from Tiny Wu-Tang Clan.

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