Elections 2022: Why AAP’s long game comes with a silver lining for the BJP

Powered by its national ambitions, the Aam Aadmi Party is set to enter the poll fray in the two BJP-ruled states of Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh where elections are due later this year.

Having marked its arrival on the national stage with an impressive win in the Punjab elections, the Aam Aadmi Party will be put to test as it enters the election blitzkrieg in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh later this year. Having set its mind to turning every election where there is a direct fight between the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party into a triangular contest, the AAP’s long game is likely to damage a dilapidated Congress more than it would hurt the BJP in the shorter run.

There appears to be a general consensus that AAP’s foray into unchartered territory may be a risk worth taking in the long run, as well as a path of a natural progression for a party that has made its mark by becoming the only Opposition outfit that is in power in two states on its own. The implications in the short term, however, are likely to be much more for a Congress in disarray than for the BJP. While experts view AAP’s chances of turning the tables in Himachal and Gujarat — both currently ruled by the BJP — this year as bleak, its entry is likely to come with a silver lining for the BJP which is otherwise faced with the twin challenges of high anti-incumbency and a purported discontent within its ranks.

For, the Arvind Kejriwal-led party is an even bigger threat to the Congress, which is in disarray in both poll-bound states. If not enough to defeat the BJP, the AAP is likely to end up replacing Congress as the prime opposition party, political commentator Amitabh Tiwari told FinancialExpress.com. “The AAP should be able to eat into the Congress’ votes — more in Gujarat and less in Himachal Pradesh,” he said, adding that the AAP’s politics has emerged as more “Left-leaning”, thereby sharing the same electoral space as the Congress. 

“Their ideology is Left, so they have occupied the same space as Congress and they will only get votes from there,” he said. 

The BJP, on its part, continues to be dismissive of the Aam Aadmi Party, which they feel is slated for the same fate as it did in Uttar Pradesh, Goa, Uttarakhand and Manipur in the recently-concluded Assembly polls. “They made a lot of noise in UP, but its candidates lost deposits wherever they contested. In the same manner, they were rejected by the public in Uttarakhand. The same will happen in Himachal and Gujarat — they have no future in either of the states, they will be rejected by the people,” BJP spokesperson Anil Baluni told FinancialExpress.com.

On whether AAP’s entry will lead to a division of anti-BJP votes, Baluni said his party doesn’t work with such an approach, and rather seeks votes on the basis of the developmental work it has done. “We have given good governance in Himachal and Gujarat, so we have faith that the people of both states will repose their faith in us, and their (AAP’s) deposits will be forfeited again,” Baluni added.   

Gujarat: The ‘Patidar’ factor

The BJP struggled to overcome anti-incumbency in the 2017 Assembly polls, but still managed to retain power in Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Union minister Amit Shah’s home state. It failed to perform well in the rural-farmer belt and the tribal communities of Gujarat back then and faced challenges in the form of the Patidar and Una agitations. The party saw an increase in its vote share, but suffered a major loss in seats, falling from 115 in the 2012 Assembly polls to 99 of the 182 assembly seats. 

While the BJP still faces anti-incumbency, there is no such agitation this time. A factor that could work well for the BJP this time around is the recent exit of Hardik Patel, who spearheaded the Patidar quota agitation, from the Congress amid growing buzz that he will join the BJP. 

Moreover, efforts are underway not just the BJP, but the Congress and AAP as well, to woo Naresh Patel — the tallest Leuva Patidar leader — and get him on board ahead of elections. Patidars, which account for 19 per cent votes in Gujarat, play a key role in determining Assembly polls in 71 of the state’s total 182 constituencies. This agrarian community has always been a key support base for the BJP.

On the other hand, AAP’s Gujarat hope is fuelled by its performance in the February 2021 Surat Municipal Corporation (SMC) polls where it sprang a surprise by winning 27 seats as the Congress drew a blank. The BJP clinched the SMC, but the AAP got the main Opposition’s space vacated by the Congress. Last October, it bagged one seat in the Gandhinagar Municipal Corporation elections and also ensured the Congress’s defeat in many seats by eating into its votes.

While the AAP may not be able to garner many seats, “it will definitely play the role of a spoiler,” Tiwari says.  “Along with the freebies appeal for the rural, the AAP’s overall electoral appeal has been majorly urban-centric,” he said, adding that the party is making desperate attempts to woo the tribal community as well.

Himachal Pradesh: A different ball game

While the BJP appears to be on a firm footing in Gujarat, the situation is starkly different in the hill-state of Himachal Pradesh. The BJP here faces a tougher challenge of a strong anti-incumbency wave which was evident from the ruling party’s loss of three Assembly and one Lok Sabha seat in the October 2021 bypolls. Moreover, its conventional game-changer — Prem Kumar Dhumal — is virtually in political exile after his defeat in the previous Assembly polls. 

On the other hand, the Congress will be fighting polls this year for the first time in the last three decades without the towering personality of former Chief Minister and party patriarch Virbhadra Singh, who passed away last year, leaving the party bereft of an effective second rung of leadership.

While the pitch seems to be more or less clear for the AAP, Tiwari opines that its impact on the opposition votes will be minimal, given the fact that the contest in the hill state is still fairly bipolar. The BJP has announced that it will contest the elections under Thakur’s leadership. The chief minister is confident of retaining power and believes that AAP is no threat to the BJP, but the main contest remains with the Congress. 

Ahead of the Assembly polls, AAP has announced to play a ‘semi-final’ to test the waters in its maiden contest in the BJP-ruled Shimla Municipal Corporation, slated in May-end. The results could prove to be an indicator of whose votes the AAP manages to eat into. With the Congress grappling under a leadership crisis and dissent within the state unit, a negative perception in the public for the Grand Old Party could play in AAP’s favour. 

While the Congress scored a major upset by winning all three assembly seats of Arki, Jubbal-Kotkhai and Fatehpur in bypoll, its faction-riddled state unit could impact the party’s performance. Earlier this month, over three dozen people, including Samyukt Kisan Morcha Himachal Pradesh convener and Congress leader Aninder Singh Nauty, joined the Aam Aadmi Party, which continues to expand its base in the hill state.