We have a new page to offer where the sims will be updated throughout the day. You can find it here, the link will be the same every day (for bookmarking purposes), and all the tables are pre-sorted for you.
STACK IT UP
Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top 6 projected hitters. Team cost is the average cost of that team’s top six optimal probability players.
Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Padres, Rockies
The San Diego Padres are the top stack on our optimal board tonight in their matchup against the Colorado Rockies. To put it lightly, the Padres have been pretty dreadful at the plate over the past two weeks, ranking dead last in ISO along with bottom four rankings in wOBA and wRC+, while scoring the second-fewest runs. Safe to say, this looks to set up for the opposing pitcher. That pitcher will be Jose Urena, who made his Rockies debut last week against the Los Angeles Dodgers with low expectations after a rough minor league season. Admittedly, Urena pitched well, allowing a lone run over six innings against one of the league’s top offenses. Can he do it again, or was his last outing just a fluke? Given how bad he has been in recent seasons, his rough Triple-A stint, and that he had more walks than strikeouts in that outing, siding with fluke seems the way to go. The Padres’ team stack looks affordable and one of the cheapest on the slate, but they will see a big bump in ownership. Is a near 30% expected ownership clip for a struggling offense worth it? Despite the questions around Urena and the Coors Field advantage, avoiding this stack altogether might be the safer play.
The Rockies are right behind the Padres on the optimal board tonight, which signals that the computer expects a high-scoring affair between these two clubs. Sean Manaea will be on the mound for the Padres, who has had a pretty average season in that rotation thus far. He has decent strikeout production at roughly 25% and has his xERA and xFIP below 4.00, but he walks a lot of batters and isn’t great at limiting power. The Rockies are comfortable hitting in their home ballpark, and they have been performing well at the plate over the past two weeks, ranking in the top half in baseball in ISO and wOBA. They have also been striking out at the third-lowest rate during that same period. The Rockies look to see an ownership boost and are one of the more expensive team stacks on the slate. The computer loves a high-scoring game for this matchup. Still, Colorado looks to be the more comfortable DFS play given the Padres’ recent struggles and the ownership advantage for the Rockies.
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