Will GOP take control of House? Network 'power rankings' has answer
The U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C. (Pixabay)
One network, Fox News, has released its "Power Rankings" for the 2022 midterm elections, and they show that the GOP likely will be the majority in the House, by margins ranging from about half a dozen to several dozen seats.
The report suggests the GOP will be in the majority by "at least seven seats," a margin that actually could end up being several dozen.
It would mean the end of octogenarian Nancy Pelosi's reign as House Speaker – at least for now.
It also would rein in some of the more extreme moves that have developed in the House – like extreme "green agenda" points, radical "equality" proposals, deadly abortion plans and more – while the Democrats held the majority in the House and Senate, and Democrat Joe Biden was in the White House.
The assessment previews that the GOP will take anywhere from 225 seats, which would give it a solid majority, to 255 seats.
"With redistricting completed and the bulk of the primaries behind us, the Power Rankings model now reveals a clear advantage for the GOP in the House," the report explains. "With 218 seats required to take control, the GOP is forecast to take 225 seats to the Democrats' 180 seats. Those figures include only the races in which one party has an advantage. The actual size of a GOP majority will depend on how many highly competitive 'toss up' races each party wins, but the Republicans are expected to gain at least a seven-seat majority (225 seats) and as much as a 37-seat majority (255 seats) in their 'best case' scenario.
"Even if Democrats win all 30 races currently marked as toss-ups, the party still does not have enough support to retain control of the House," the report explained.
It's not the first such prediction, and it explains why Democrats are developing such a frantic attitude about putting their political points into law immediately, such as the recent demands that abortion be "codified" right away, after the Supreme Court returned regulation of that lucrative industry to the states.
The report conceded the ratings are "estimates," "nonetheless, the current forecast looks very cloudy for congressional Democrats."
The report acknowledged one big factor in the issue is Joe Biden's plunging approval ratings.
"A New York Times/Siena poll released Monday puts Biden’s approval rating at just 33%, and several high-quality polls now show Biden with a lower rating than former President Donald Trump had at the same time in his presidency. Just as Trump’s approval rating foreshadowed the Democrats’ solid victory in the House back then, so does Biden’s rating now," the report said.
Cited as an issue by voters have been Biden's inflation, especially higher costs for food and gas, and even Democrat candidates have started avoiding Biden. Then there's Biden's southern border crisis, his Afghanistan failure, the extremists he's installed in position positions, and more.
The report explained," This translates into a congressional map where Republicans can retain the seats they need – and explore new territory. There are 13 seats held by Democrats in the 'Lean R' and 'Likely R' categories, but just one Republican-held seat in the 'Lean D' or 'Likely D' columns. That is TX-34, where newly sworn-in Rep. Mayra Flores will face a bluer redistricted electorate in November. This allows the GOP to play offense across the country. There are multiple pickup opportunities in swing states that have trended blue in the Trump era, like Colorado and Nevada. Even in Connecticut, a state that voted for President Biden by 20 points, five Democrat-held districts are competitive."
The assessment did say that the Supreme Court's recent decision to return regulation of abortion to the states could impact the election results, but it is unclear at this point how.
The report said Democrats are at risk of losing key districts where the Hispanic support for their party in the past has been high.
The report said Republicans also have "the edge" in the Senate.
"With a total of 49 seats across the Solid R, Likely R & Lean R columns (plus 29 seats not up for election in 2022), the GOP has to win only two of the five Toss Up races to take control of the Senate, whereas the Democrats need to win four of those races just to reach a 50-seat 'majority' with the aid of Vice President Kamala Harris."
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