MLB DFS: Cardinals, Blue Jays Top Optimal Stacks for Wednesday

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STACK IT UP

Stack optimal probabilities are calculated using each team’s top six projected hitters.

Team stacks with the highest optimal probabilities: Cardinals, Blue Jays

The St. Louis Cardinals are our top optimal stack for the second straight night as they are still at Coors Field with Kyle Freeland on the mound in opposition. St. Louis has been one of the best offenses in baseball, ranking in the top five in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks. They have a sub-20% strikeout rate working in their favor along with the third highest BB% rate over the past two weeks, showing that ducks are on the pond frequently, and they put the ball in play often. One thing we have learned at Coors is that if you put the ball in play, magical things can happen.

The Cardinals got embarrassed last night by the Rockies, but they are too good offensively to allow themselves to get embarrassed once more tonight. Freeland isn’t anything special as his expected ERA and FIP rates hover around 4.50, and he struggles to rack up strikeouts. He actually limits power well, which is excellent for a pitcher who plays half his games in Colorado. St. Louis is atop the optimal board and expected ownership column and is relatively affordable. They still knocked in five runs last night in an off game, so the Cardinals will undoubtedly get something, but it is a matter of how much. This is a high upside play that will hold value if you back a high upside leverage arm like Sandy Alcantara and steer away from the high ownership pitchers like Justin Verlander.

The Toronto Blue Jays join the Cardinals near the top of the team stack optimal board as the Jays will face off against Dean Kremer and the Baltimore Orioles. Baltimore has been a fun team to root for as they look to sweep the Blue Jays and propel themselves into the AL Wild Card. Kremer has been a welcomed addition to the Orioles’ rotation with his 3.43 ERA, but regression could be on the horizon as his expected ERA is north of 5.00 while struggling to get strikeouts with his K% of 17.8%.

Toronto has not been swinging the bats too well as teams start to close the AL Wild Card gap on them. They have ranked in the bottom half of baseball in ISO, wOBA, and wRC+ over the past two weeks, which has been one of the coldest two-week stretches they have had all season. We see comparable ownership to their optimal probability on this stack with a slightly underpriced average salary. If you believe in the Blue Jays’ offensive as a whole, this is a play to make, given that Kremer has been better than advertised. However, messing with a team of destiny like the Orioles can quickly turn around and bite you in the butt. 

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