Box office preview: Can ‘Mad Max’ director George Miller or vampires do anything to save a waning summer movie season?

There’s a reason why the term “Dog Days of Summer” is frequently bandied about this time of year, and this weekend will probably be another great example of how the last few weeks of August affect any movies daring enough to be released. The studios usually know better, and let’s just say that they’re not going to throw out their biggest movies on a weekend when schools are reopening and people are returning from summer activities. Read on for Gold Derby’s box office preview.

It’s into this market that we get a popular filmmaker’s follow-up to his six-time Oscar-winning film, as George Miller‘s first movie after 2015’s “Mad Max: Fury Road” is “Three Thousand Years of Longing,” a literary adaptation with Idris Elba and Tilda Swinton. Based on A.S. Byatt’s short story “The Djinn in the Nightingale’s Eye,” the movie stars Swinton as an academic on a trip to Istanbul who finds a bottle with a mystical Djinn (Elba) inside, who grants her three wishes and proceeds to tell her his story while awaiting them.

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This is quite an arty film compared to Miller’s “Mad Max” action flicks; the movie premiered at the Cannes Film Festival in May to mixed reviews, currently at 64% on Rotten Tomatoes. We got a pretty good idea of the audience Idris Elba can pull in with the near-$12 million that “Beast” opened with this past weekend, but that’s also a very different kind of project, a high-concept action-thriller with a giant lion sharing screen time with Elba. Swinton, on the other hand, has been so ensconced in arthouse fare in recent years – other than playing the Ancient One in 2016’s “Doctor Strange” and various MCU appearances since – but she has gained quite a large amount of respect and prestige for her work in the movies of Wes Anderson and others, which gives “Three Thousand Years” more pull with older audiences, at least.

United Artists Releasing is putting “Three Thousand Years of Longing” out into 2,500 theaters beginning on Friday – originally, it was planned for a release next Wednesday – but it’s hard to imagine it will do big business outside the major cities. With that in mind, I can’t really see it making more than $5 million or maybe close to $6 million this weekend.

Opening in roughly 3,000 theaters, the Sony/Screen Gems vampire movie “The Invitation” isn’t really being screened for critics in advance of its opening, which is always a worrying sign that can make moviegoers dubious to shell out their hard-earned cash to see it. Formerly called “The Bride” – an equally generic name, if you ask me – this one stars Nathalie Emmanuel, best known for playing Missandei in “Game of Thrones,” as a young woman who is swept off her feet by Thomas Doherty (“Gossip Girl”) and invited to meet his family. It’s a vampire movie, so you can figure out where it goes.

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There isn’t a lot to sell this movie other than it being a PG-13 horror film being released against a number of higher-profile R-rated movies currently in theaters (“Beast” and “Bullet Train”). With schools back in session, teens may want something scary to see in theaters with their friends, which might help this fare better than Sony’s “Umma,” the horror film released way back in March that barely grossed $2 million in North America. If “Three Thousand Years” ends up on the higher-end of the $5 million range, this one will probably just barely eke out $5 million while getting caught up in the middle of returning movies in the Top 5.

Since neither of the two new wide releases is likely to make close to $10 million, that means CrunchyRoll’s anime sequel “Dragon Ball Super: Super Hero” stands a good chance at being #1 again even with a substantial second-weekend drop. It probably won’t make more than $9 million to $10 million this weekend, but that should be more than enough to secure that top spot. “Beast,” “Top Gun: Maverick” and “Bullet Train” are likely to be caught up in the same $4.5 to $6 million range with the new movies. It will be Idris Elva vs. Idris Elba for second place.

Getting a more moderate wide release this weekend is the Sundance favorite “Breaking,” starring John Boyega from the “Star Wars” movies as Brian Brown-Easley, the real-life Marine who held a Marietta, Georgia bank hostage in order to get his veteran benefits. Directed by Abi Damaris Corbin (her second film) and co-starring Nicole Beharie and the late Michael K. Williams, Bleecker Street is releasing the movie into over 700 theaters which should be good for a million to a million and a half, which might not be enough for a Top 10 placement.

In anticipation for its upcoming “Star Wars” series “Andor,” premiering September 21 on Disney+, Disney and Lucasfilm will re-release 2016’s “Rogue One: A Star Wars Story,” which introduced the series’ title character as played by Diego Luna, into a number of IMAX theaters. I don’t think it will bring in more than a million dollars this weekend, since it’s been on Disney+ for years now.

Opening in just a few select cities, the Goya-winning Spanish-language comedy “The Good Boss” stars Oscar-winner Javier Bardem as a corporate big-wig anxiously awaiting a committee that will present his company with a prestigious award, while dealing with all sorts of employee issues. Directed by Fernando León de Aranoa, the dark comedy should play well with arthouse crowds in its release by Music Box Films.

Check back on Sunday to see how the movies above fared, and then next Wednesday, look for Gold Derby’s September preview, while the weekend preview takes a week off. You can also read my recap of the entire summer right here.