Five College Football Betting Systems To Know For Opening Weeks Of Season
When studying data in search of betting systems for our readers to use in their handicapping, I tend to look for specific line ranges, types of games and the point in the season in which games were played as the foundation. For instance, the opening week of the college football season presents interesting matchups every […]
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When studying data in search of betting systems for our readers to use in their handicapping, I tend to look for specific line ranges, types of games and the point in the season in which games were played as the foundation.
For instance, the opening week of the college football season presents interesting matchups every year, and the prices set by oddsmakers can give bettors valuable insight as to how the “experts” are evaluating the games. I first dug into this last year and had some success in playing the findings. I’m here now to update the analysis.
It’s typically believed that the bookmakers are the ones “in the know” and that they set their lines for specific reasons. In turn, those lines are bet heavily by the professionals, who put an equal amount of work into prepping for the season. You would think that by following the lead of these two groups, all bettors should be able to take advantage. Studying the results of games against the lines does that.
With that in mind, I wanted to find out whether there were any relatively simple systems or concepts that bettors can take advantage of in the opening weeks of the college football season. In other words, the next two weekends.
After studying the Weeks 0 and 1 games for the last nine seasons, I came up with five betting concepts you might want to consider. Note that most of the qualifying plays are next week, but there are some for this Saturday.
Concept No.1: Huge favorites (37.5 points or more) have gone 9-0 straight-up and against the spread since 2013
Steve’s thoughts: When the opening week lines approach the 40-point favorite level, it’s clear that oddsmakers perceive a massive talent gap. In addition, the better team always played at home in these games, which comes with an additional level of motivation against an opponent that is essentially powerless to stop them. The result has been easy wins and point-spread covers, with these games producing an average score of 59.3-9.1 on games with average lines of -39.4. In 2021, two games applied: Pittsburgh (-37.5) beating UMass 51-7, and Auburn (-37.5) beating Akron 60-10.
Teams qualifying for 2022:
MINNESOTA vs. New Mexico State
ALABAMA vs. Utah State
TEXAS vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Concept No. 2: Favorites at home or in neutral games in the opening week(s) since 2013 are 140-123 ATS, (53.2%) as opposed to just 30-45 ATS (40%) on the road
Steve’s thoughts: As I indicated in No. 1, there is a lot of motivation that comes from playing at home in a season opener. Teams are excited, fans are excited, and you can generally feel the extra “juice” in the home stadiums. As you can see from the ATS results over the last nine seasons, opening-week home teams are generally the better bet as they own the ATS ledger as favorites and underdogs. If you’re a bettor who prefers to back “the better team,” recognize that there has been a 13.2% difference between the success rates of home and road favorites beating their points spreads in Week 0/1 games of late.
Teams qualifying for 2022: By my count, there are 17 games lined up for the first two weekends featuring true road favorites playing in what could be more difficult environments than perceived. Several of these teams could see their season prospects flushed with a key early loss. Besides home underdog covers, there’s the possibility of outright upsets as well. Highlight these road favorite games when starting your handicapping and consider that these “better teams” will be facing motivated home dogs.
NEVADA at New Mexico
VANDERBILT at Hawaii
PENN STATE at Purdue
VIRGINIA TECH at Old Dominion
TCU at Colorado
NORTH CAROLINA at Appalachian State
NC STATE at East Carolina
TULSA at Wyoming
HOUSTON at Texas-San Antonio
BYU at South Florida
FLORIDA ATLANTIC at Ohio
UTAH at Florida
LIBERTY at Southern Miss
SMU at North Texas
LOUISVILLE at Syracuse
WESTERN KENTUCKY at Hawaii
CLEMSON at Georgia Tech
Concept No. 3: Group of 5 teams in Weeks 0/1 who are touchdown favorites or more are just 18-25 ATS (41.9%) since 2013.
Steve’s thoughts: For as much as there are expanded previews of the Group of 5 teams published by experts like Phil Steele, Brad Powers, Kenny White and our group here at VSiN, you have to figure that analyzing a team filled with more high-level talent (3-star and higher) of the Power 5 conference teams is easier than those trying to make the most out of the more commonplace two-star-level players of the Group of 5s. In other words, projecting point spreads for the latter is more speculative. This leaves more margin for error, and as it has turned out recently, it seems that underdogs in these Group of 5 matchups take a lot of motivation from the slight.
Group of 5 matchup big favorites qualifying for 2022: On average there have been fewer than five games per season in which one Group of 5 team was favored by a TD or more over another. This year, we get eight games as of publication time. These are the heavy favorites that would be worth fading should the system continue:
UTAH STATE vs. Connecticut
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. Charlotte
NEVADA at NEW MEXICO STATE
BYU at South Florida
JAMES MADISON vs. Middle Tennessee State
TULANE vs. Massachusetts
SMU at North Texas
WESTERN KENTUCKY at Hawaii
Concept No. 4: Favorites in conference games are just 9-9 SU and 7-11 ATS (38.8%) in Weeks 0/1 since 2016.
Steve’s thoughts: The importance of conference games, even in the opening weeks of the season, can’t be understated. Conference clashes typically bring out the best in focus and level of preparation. It’s difficult to open a season against a rival. This familiarity takes away a lot of the motivational edge better teams get in early-season matchups. If you figure that conference favorites have covered at only a 38.9% rate and all other favorites have gone 50.3%, there is better than an 11% advantage to betting a favorite in a nonconference game in Weeks 0/1. Conference games this early are rare, but there are five Big Ten clashes and an ACC tilt on tap for the next two weekends.
Conference game favorites qualifying for 2022: There are seven conference games in Weeks 0/1, including a North Texas-UTEP game that was a pick ’em Tuesday morning.
NEBRASKA vs. Northwestern
FLORIDA ATLANTIC vs. Charlotte
PENN STATE at Purdue
INDIANA vs. Illinois
LOUISVILLE at Syracuse
CLEMSON at Georgia Tech
Concept No. 5: In games with totals of 48 or less with a favorite of 4 points or more, the UNDER is 22-6 (78.6%) since 2013.
Steve’s thoughts: Remember, the oddsmakers study these teams extensively throughout the offseason. When they find that teams aren’t going to be very explosive offensively, they basically tell you so by setting their opening totals low. As proof, the underdogs of +4 or more in these 28 games have scored just 12.9 points per game. When only one of the teams is capable of scoring, you don’t get too many Overs. Considering that the average college total has been in the 56-57 range for the last eight years, a total of 48 may seem appetizing for an Over play, but it’s proven to be a profitable strategy to avoid that temptation. See low, expect low.
Games with totals of 48 or less and one team favored by 4 points or more qualifying for 2022: There are only two games officially qualifying as Under plays as of publication time and they both involve Illinois, but the Arizona-San Diego State and Clemson-Georgia Tech matchups both showed numbers of 48.5 and could eventually wind up qualifying.
Wyoming at Illinois
Illinois at Indiana
For more sports betting insight and analysis, visit VSiN.com.
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