Pac-12 football preview: Rankings the quarterback depth (the backups matter, too)

We assessed the quality of the starter and the backups, because you never know when the No. 2 will be called upon.

Welcome to our third and final assessment of Pac-12 quarterback depth in 2022.

To determine the Quarterback Comfort Quotient for each team (QBCQ), we consider the caliber of the starter and the reliability of the backups.

After all, the second stringer is the least important player on the roster until he’s the most important.

Please note: Not all backups are listed below, only those we believe are relevant for 2022.

We previously assessed each team’s QBCQ in February at the beginning of the offseason, and in May after spring practices.

1. UCLAProjected starter: Dorian Thompson-RobinsonTop backup: Ethan GarbersOther options: Chase Griffin, Justyn MartinComment: Thompson-Robinson was an all-Pac-12 selection last year and should play at a high level again, especially with the running game easing the pressure on him to constantly make plays. And if Thompson-Robinson isn’t available, the Bruins have at least two options: Garbers is one of the best backups in the conference; Griffin has starting experience; and Martin was a coveted recruit with significant upside.

2. UtahProjected starter: Cameron RisingTop backup: Bryson BarnesOther options: Ja’Quiden JacksonComment: Good example of the subjectivity at the foundation of this exercise: Rising would not rate in the top three if we were assessing only projected starters, and Barnes would be on the second tier of backups based on his limited experience. But add ingredients like leadership, durability, poise and clutch play, and our QBCQ algorithm ranks Utah’s combination near the top.

3. USCProjected starter: Caleb WilliamsTop backup: Miller MossOther options: Jake JensenComment: There is a scenario, entirely plausible, in which Williams takes every meaningful snap, performs at a Heisman level and USC’s quarterback play laps the field. But we don’t view that as the most likely outcome, partly because of the potential for Williams to experience stretches of inefficiency. If Moss had attempted 130 passes, instead of just 13, we’d probably slot the Trojans in the top spot.

4. ArizonaProjected starter: Jayden de LauraTop backup: Jordan McCloudOther options: Noah Fifita, Gunner CruzComment: The Wildcats have upgraded their quarterback room substantially with regard to the quality of the starter and the reliability of the backup. De Laura played at an all-conference level at Washington State while McCloud, who has 500 career attempts at Arizona and USF, stands as one of the top No. 2s in the Pac-12. The challenge is keeping them upright, and healthy.

5. WashingtonProjected starter: Michael Penix Jr.Top backup: Dylan MorrisOther options: Sam HuardComment: Morris’ return was somewhat surprising but indisputably important. He provides an experienced option behind an oft-injured starter and gives the Huskies the luxury of slotting a former five-star recruit into the No. 3 role. But quality depth is merely one piece of the QBCQ; high-level play from the starter matters, too. Will Penix (or Morris) deliver? We’re slightly skeptical.

6. StanfordProjected starter: Tanner McKeeTop backup: Ari PatuOther options: Ashton DanielsComment: McKee enters ’22 as the top NFL prospect in the conference (at his position), but the combination of skinny frame, modest mobility and questionable offensive line makes us wonder about his durability. Meanwhile, Patu has attempted just 16 passes, and Daniels is a true freshman. A classic QBCQ case study: The Cardinal has no reason to fret over its quarterbacks, unless it has reason to panic.

7. OregonProjected starter: Bo NixTop backup: Ty ThompsonOther options: Jay ButterfieldComment: No team in the conference has a wider range of potential outcomes for its quarterback play. Nix might thrive with the scenery change from Auburn, but we need to see it: He never completed more than 61 percent of his passes, and his yards-per-attempt last season (7.1) was one of the lowest in the Power Five. Meanwhile, Thompson is a gifted but inexperienced backup.

8. Arizona StateProjected starter: Emory JonesTop backup: Trenton BourgetOther options: Paul TysonComment: Given the state of the quarterback depth following Jayden Daniels’ departure, the Sun Devils have fortified impressively. Jones threw 346 passes last year at Florida and faced both Georgia and Alabama (with mixed results, not surprisingly). His mobility and savvy will serve ASU well, but we prefer the wait-and-see approach. And if he gets hurt, there’s big trouble.

9. Washington StateProjected starter: Cam WardTop backup: Xavier WardOther options: John MateerComment: Cam Ward is vastly more talented than his background (Incarnate Word) suggests and could have a Gardner Minshew-level impact considering his familiarity with the offense. That said, we expect uneven play as he adjusts to the speed of Pac-12 defenses. And the offensive line looks wobbly. And neither Xavier Ward (no relation to Cam) or Mateer has game experience.

10. Oregon StateProjected starter: Chance NolanTop backup: Ben GulbransonOther options: Tristan GebbiaComment: Nolan was merely solid last season (19 touchdowns, 10 interceptions) and benefitted from a first-class running game that might lose steam this season given the attrition up front. Gebbia is a former starter, which counts for something, but he hasn’t played in two years because of a hamstring injury. And Gulbranson, while gifted, has limited experience.

11. CalProjected starter: Jack PlummerTop backup: Kai MillnerOther options: Zach JohnsonComment: Admittedly, this projection could look silly by November if Plummer emerges as a top-tier passer. But our view is the following: Cal’s first-stringer was benched midway through last season at Purdue, and its backup is a redshirt freshman. On paper, that combination doesn’t engender much confidence, especially when the surrounding playmakers don’t qualify as elite.

12. ColoradoProjected starter: Brendon LewisTop backup: JT ShroutOther options: Owen McCown, Drew CarterComment: The Buffaloes have not officially named Lewis the starter — that designation is merely our guess. No doubt, there is some gamesmanship at play in keeping the decision secret from the Week One opponent, TCU. But the situation underscores the fact that CU does not have a clear No. 1. Lewis was erratic last year as a freshman while Shrout, a Tennessee transfer, missed ’21 with a knee injury.

*** Previously published …

Order of finish/records for each teamBowl projectionsHot Seat analysis for each coachImpact newcomers

Support the Hotline: Receive three months of unlimited access for just 99 cents. Yep, that’s 99 cents for 90 days, with the option to cancel anytime. Details are here, and thanks for your support.

*** Send suggestions, comments and tips (confidentiality guaranteed) to pac12hotline@bayareanewsgroup.com or call 408-920-5716

*** Follow me on Twitter: @WilnerHotline

*** Pac-12 Hotline is not endorsed or sponsored by the Pac-12 Conference, and the views expressed herein do not necessarily reflect the views of the Conference.