Power Ranking Averages - Week 28-29 (9/8/22)

Another double week by MLS reckoning, PHI bumps LAFC out of 1st.

8 sites published for wk 28 (midweek), and all 14 sites for wk 29. Ratings DO NOT include the mid-week game (Sept. 7th).

Sites Used

• Jeff Sagarin
• Five Thirty Eight (Proj. points)
• Who Scored
• ESPN
• Massey
• Sonny Moore Rankings
• MLS
• Verses Sports Simulator
• Simmons Ratings
• Freeborg Power Index
• MLS Network
• Betting Odds (avg. of mult. sites)
• Broadway Sports
• US Soccer Players (monthly)

You may notice the inclusion of ‘analytic’ sites; they serve to function as a ‘control group’ to the rest which are based on personal opinions. There are also sites included that some will argue are ‘prediction rankings’ - but that also is a form of Power Ranking is (see the quote at the top) since it uses algorithms to calculate a team’s likely final position.

Bias for or against certain teams are sometimes an unfortunate feature of power rankings. It can be based on their analytic formula, or the raters preference. In some cases the bias can become extreme - If you feel a site got the ratings wrong for your team I invite you to contact them regarding it.

I will typically only remove sites for two reasons.

1. Duplicating / copying ratings from another source on the list.
2. Failure to update for 6 consecutive weeks. Previous ratings will not be removed, but new ones may or may not be added. I will still periodically check them to see if they have resumed.

All the averages use the Olympic method (I.E. Truncated Mean value) of dropping the highest and lowest scores, and then averaging the rest to reduce bias.

The full spreadsheeet is here.

• Highest Standard Deviation: New York City FC 5.38
• Lowest Standard Deviation: Philadelphia Union 0.43
• Biggest Rise: FC Dallas, Nashville SC up 4.
• Biggest Fall: 6 teams down 2.
• New Lows: DCU (28th x10), HOU (27th x4).
• New Highs: MTL (3rd), PHI (1st x7).

Site Bias

All sites are going to have bias, whether conscious (blogs) or due to analytic calculation (based on past performance). This section lets you see the extent that sites are biased for/against teams. Negative totals (-) are bias FOR, positive numbers (+) are bias AGAINST.

This bias list is based on Season Average and not weekly ranking.

• Most accurate site of the week: MLS Soccer with 12 exactly on average, though 538 must be commended for getting 21 teams within 1.
• Least accurate site of the week: Who Scored with 6 off by 7+.