Emmy Experts Typing: To make or to not make last-minute changes?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, we discuss our final predictions and contemplate changes ahead of Monday’s ceremony.

Christopher Rosen: Joyce, we’ve reached the end of the road: The 2022 Emmy Awards are set for Monday night, meaning a long, long season of debates about the best and brightest television has to offer — and the limited series category too — will come to a rousing conclusion. I kid about our friends in the limited designation but only because it’s the only place where things feel pretty locked up: “The White Lotus” should win multiple awards on Monday night, a run of success broken up only by Michael Keaton in Best Actor and either Amanda Seyfried or Lily James in Best Actress. But as we discussed this week, everything else is completely unhinged. I’m ready to go 0-for-4 in the drama acting categories, and that’s with Zendaya (the favorite) in Best Actress. But despite the prospect of having a really bad year on the predictions front, I feel good about my picks. In fact, the only spot I’m really torn on at the moment is Best Comedy Supporting Actress. We talked about that category at length this week, but it’s basically down to four women: defending champion Hannah Waddingham for “Ted Lasso,” Hannah Einbinder for “Hacks,” and Janelle James and Sheryl Lee Ralph for “Abbott Elementary.” I think the “Abbott” actresses have a strong shot here, but that’s the problem: How do you pick one over the other? So with a vote-split potentially keeping “Abbott” from landing any acting wins, I’m left to choose between the Hannahs. I kept Waddingham in first because, why not? But I do think the “Ted Lasso” buzz has diminished enough that it might not win any awards other than Best Comedy Supporting Actor, where Brett Goldstein has seemingly less competition than Waddingham does. So that’s a long, tortured way of saying: I’m picking Einbinder. Maybe this is a heart prediction: She’s my favorite performance in this category and on “Hacks” itself. What she did with Ava this year was nothing short of special, and Einbinder definitely stepped up her game with a season of work under her belt. Plus, despite having fewer nominations, “Hacks” does feel stronger at the moment than “Ted Lasso.” So, I’m making a change. I can’t wait to get this one wrong too. What about you, Joyce? Do you have such doubts?

joyceeng: I am always Meryl. As you know, this is a frustrating category for me since Sarah Goldberg was cruelly snubbed and ought to be winning for “Barry” (I don’t think she would win even if she were nominated though). I have repeatedly come thisclose to putting Einbinder, my second fave, in first. She was tremendous in the second season and her last scene with Jean Smart is one of the top TV moments of the year. And if you’re voting for Smart, you might be inclined to check off Einbinder as well. The whole season was about how inextricably linked their characters are. I’ve had James since noms — she was the first “Abbott” win I put down and I have since added two — so I would also hate to drop her only to watch her win. Ralph could definitely siphon enough votes, but James was such a breakout scene-stealer and this category is kind to scene-stealers. Is this gonna come down to Ava vs. Ava? Choose your fighter. I could also see a scenario in which Einbinder is “Hacks’” only win of the night if “Abbott” takes series, actress and writing — all for Quinta Brunson. If you asked someone two months ago, “If “Hacks” could only win one award, what would it be?”, they’d probably say Smart, but here we are.

SEE Emmy Experts slugfest: Our final 2022 winner predictions

Christopher Rosen: This probably isn’t true, but I feel like we were the first people to take “Abbott” seriously as a major threat to win Best Comedy Series — so kudos to us. But while we’ve been at the leading edge of that potential upset win — and you’ve been all over Janelle James for months, an actress I would fully support taking the Emmy on Monday; she rules! — I still don’t think Brunson has enough material to beat Smart in Best Comedy Actress. That’s not to say it can’t happen: As we saw with “CODA” at the Oscars earlier this year, the heart wants what it wants when it comes to awards bodies, and if “Abbott Elementary” is the people’s choice this year, it could easily win multiple awards. But Smart feels not just undeniable, but kind of obvious. She’s doing Acting on “Hacks,” and — this is no knock to Brunson, who handles the straight-woman role with great aplomb — no one else in the category can really match her. Plus, as I said this week — and I think this even now as I’ve put Einbinder in first as well lol – when people think of “Hacks,” they think of Jean Smart. She’s the show, so a win for her really signals support for a beloved series. But let’s move off comedy before we say goodbye. In drama, we both have “Succession” winning in series, but there’s been some talk online at least of a “Squid Game” upset. I don’t see it, even if it could win two acting awards. But maybe I’m blinded by my love of the Roy family. What are you feeling in drama?

joyceeng: “Succession” may have just won one award at Creative Arts, but it was an important one: casting. It’s a contemporary, talky show, so it was never going to dominate and it had a whole lotta vote-splitting going on in the guest races. But it’s such a force above the line that it’s hard to see it losing, especially when there doesn’t seem to be a consensus alternative. I mentioned this the other day, but it feels like the SAG Awards: “Squid Game” won individual prizes over “Succession” (one in a triple vote-split sitch), but the voters still went full f—ing beast on Waystar Royco in the ensemble category. “Succession” also hit everywhere it was expected to hit in terms of nominations, whereas “Squid Game” underperformed, missing costumes, score and both sound categories, despite earning guild noms earlier this year. It also wasn’t even the Creative Arts leader since “Stranger Things” and “Euphoria” grabbed five apiece. Obviously winning multiple awards is a never a bad thing, and yes, sometimes the top Creative Arts champs go on to win the series award (“Game of Thrones,” “The Queen’s Gambit,” “Watchmen”), but they’re usually already the favorite. “The Mandalorian” won seven Creative Arts Emmys in 2020 and 2021, but it was never the series fave over “Succession” and “The Crown.” I also feel like sometimes people look at the number of wins without considering what they are and the dynamics of each race. “Squid Game” beat multiple drama series nominees, including “Succession,” in guest actress and production design — it also won at the Art Directors Guild Awards — but its other two wins were for visual effects and stunt performance, the latter of which it bagged at SAG. Neither category featured “Succession” and there was only one other drama series nominee across both, “Stranger Things” in stunts. This is a long way of saying that “Squid Game” may win more awards on Monday than “Succession,” but, like Logan, the Roys will win the big one. But will Logan Roy himself win? We both had our fun supporting Brian Cox the past two months, but we’ve moved onto different drama actor winners now. I have the safe pick, SAG champ Lee Jung-jae, but I very much want to hopedict your pick, the one and only Bob Odenkirk. However, I’ve been mentally prepared since July 12 for “Better Call Saul” to extend its losing streak to 0-46.

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Which shows will edge ahead after Creative Arts Awards?

Christopher Rosen: If we were doing a hacky “will win/should win”-style piece, I would have Cox in the “should win” designation. He’s just that good. I maintain his performance in Season 3 was pretty much better than any performance in any visual medium over the last 12 months. But while it would be wonderful for Cox to win, I just think the “Succession” boys cancel each other out. Lee is clearly the safe pick here, and he’s favored to win in our odds because logic dictates the “Succession” duo will split things just enough for him to cruise. But I’m sticking with Bob. It’s not just sentimental, but I think momentum. Of all the nominees here, none had a better run during voting than Odenkirk. Maybe that doesn’t matter all that much, but I think his constant presence and universal appeal will be just enough for him to win in a close race. But now I’m wondering if I should go back to Rhea Seehorn too, or keep Jung Ho-yeon in Best Drama Supporting Actress. To bring this back full circle, I have such doubts. Joyce, I’ll leave you with the last word: Rhea yay or Rhea nay?

joyceeng: Rhea has been and forever will be a HELL YAY. But we know I cannot predict her due to my curse. It is a burden I must carry, but it is worth it if it means we can call her “Emmy winner Rhea Seehorn” by the end of Monday night. I remain on two-time champ and current double nominee Julia Garner, but again, such doubts. I’ve thought about shifting to Jung, especially if I do flip to Odenkirk, even though the safest combo is the SAG champs. I don’t even know what I’m saying anymore. It’s Friday. Excuse me while I blast the “Succession” Season 3 soundtrack by Emmy winner but also loser Nicholas Britell.

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