Cable One stock downgraded as Wells Fargo sees various pressures on cable industry

Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall downgraded shares of Cable One Inc. to equal-weight from overweight Monday, warning of the spending trajectory ahead for the broader cable universe. "While we think CABO has the strongest/best network-nearly 70% fiber by mileage-it's also well known that incremental competition is coming to all areas, including rural," Cahall wrote. He expects that the upcoming capital-expenditure cycle in the cable industry will pressure free-cash flow for Cable One and fellow providers. He predicts Cable One will have to spend $200 for each home passed, compared with $300 for both Comcast Corp. and Charter Communications Inc. , and perhaps $600 for Altice USA Inc. . "While our capex may be too heavy in the near term, we think we're directionally right for the sector that a build phase is ahead," Cahell wrote. "While CABO's capex cycle may be somewhat less severe vs peers, it's still a necessity, as competition in rural markets is increasing from FWA, fiber, and eventually, satellite." Additionally, though Cahall sees Cable One as "still the best house" in the challenged cable neighborhood, he doubts the company will be "immune" to pressures in the industry. "We think CABO's markets skew to lower-income cohorts, hence inflation and higher gas prices have a bigger impact on sub metrics," he wrote, while cutting his price target on the stock to $1,200 from $1,700. The shares have lost 38% so far this year as the S&P 500 has fallen 15%.

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