Mac Jones Leads NFL In Picks And Other Week 1 Overreaction Bets To Ponder
At this point, the whole “Week 2 in the NFL is overreaction week” thing is so cliche it might actually be the square position when it comes to betting the league.
But that’s not to say we still don’t fly off the handle a little bit when it comes to what we see in the first week of competitive NFL football since February. The opening week of the 2022 season was no different, either, with plenty of opportunities to fire off hot takes.
The betting market has already started to adjust based on what we saw and how people are betting into it. On the other hand, there are certain markets that might be slow to evolve especially after just one week that might present what at least looks like betting value on, say, a season-long prop bet.
Here are a few wagers bettors could make based only what they saw in Week 1 that may — or may not — make sense (odds from DraftKings Sportsbook).
Mac Jones to lead the NFL in interceptions (+2000)
Why it makes sense: The Patriots offense didn’t look like the total dumpster fire some expected, but it certainly didn’t look good, either. The numbers point to a relatively average day, but Jones’ drive-killing, first-quarter interception was a bad decision. There’s also concern about just how well New England can protect the quarterback, while the lack of anything really resembling a running game could force Jones to throw it a ton. Pressure plus volume could lead to even more giveaways. And if things get away from him in that regard, a 20-1 won’t last long.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Despite the interception, Pro Football Focus graded Jones with zero turnover-worthy passes in Week 1. And yeah, he took some hits, but it wasn’t that bad. One interception puts him way behind the pack, too, when three QBs — Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow — all threw at least three picks. The other massive consideration: It will be hard for Jones to lead the league in anything if he has to miss time with a back injury.
The verdict: Pass. The injury thing seems real, and the schedule starts to ease up in October. Jones typically takes care of the ball regardless.
Chicago Bears OVER 6.5 wins (+100)
Why it makes sense: Chicago is already 14% of the way there with 94% of its season left. It’s simple math! On top of that, the Bears’ defense looked frisky Sunday, making life miserable for Trey Lance without having to dial up the blitz. And maybe the NFC North is even worse than we thought with Detroit getting pasted for most of its opener, and the Packers looking woefully undermanned in Minnesota. Split with both those rivals, and you’re just about there.
Why it doesn’t make sense: There was a dadgum monsoon in Chicago on Sunday that completely eradicates any and all takeaways from that game. At the end of the day, Justin Fields still completed fewer than half of his passes for just 12 yards. The reality check starts in earnest next week when the Bears go to Lambeau in primetime to take on a pissed-off Packers team … in halfway-decent weather conditions.
The verdict: Pass. The weather thing can’t be overstated, and there’s still no reason to believe the Chicago offense is going to be any good at any point in 2022.
Cincinnati Bengals to miss the playoffs (-110)
Why it makes sense: The Bengals’ top offseason priority was clear. They had to do everything in their power to protect Joe Burrow. So far, not so good. The QB was pressured on 19 of his 65 dropbacks Sunday against an admittedly strong Pittsburgh defense, though the Steelers did lose TJ Watt in the game. No quarterback was sacked more than Burrow, who was hauled down seven times a year after his 51 sacks taken were the most in the NFL. There are some short-term special teams issues, too, that certainly can cost teams valuable wins. Speaking of, are we sure Evan McPherson is that good? He choked away a game in a similar fashion last season, too.
Why it doesn’t make sense: Burrow and Ja’Marr Chase, for starters. It’s one of the best duos in the sport, and we saw Sunday that Cincinnati is never really out of it when those two are humming. We could easily dismiss that loss as fluky — losing a long-snapper midgame is never good — and it’s unlikely Burrow is going to have a lot of four-pick games. The Bengals defense held the Steelers to just 4.4 yards per play which ranked 27th of the 30 teams to play through Sunday.
The verdict: Pass — for now. The offensive line still looks like a major issue. Maybe they’ll get it figured out with some more reps, but that’s an alarming start to the season. But if you think the Bengals are ultimately doomed, you could definitely act now. If you want to gamble a little bit, though, waiting could be the play. Cincinnati plays the Dak Prescott-less Cowboys next week and the hapless Jets in Week 3. The number should be better if they’re 2-1 after three weeks, but if that line is a major issue, it eventually will cost them their season.
Philadelphia Eagles to win NFC East (-140)
Why it makes sense: Philly looked every bit the explosive team many expected it would in Week 1. Only the Chiefs scored more points than Philly’s 38-point outburst, and that was without the passing game getting completely on track. Meanwhile, the Eagles’ top contender in the East, the Cowboys, just lost their starting quarterback and now turns to a backup behind an already-suspect offensive line. Are the Giants really going to contend? The Commanders?
Why it doesn’t make sense: Laying a number like that after one week of games in what should be a fairly competitive division is a tough sell. And while only KC scored more points than the Eagles, the third-highest scoring team in Week 1 was Detroit — Philly’s opponent. The defense had some problems closing that thing out. And it’s not like the Giants and Commanders are looking up at the Birds. Both teams won and looked occasionally impressive in the process.
The verdict: Act now. The comparisons aren’t perfect, but look how quickly the numbers can balloon in these divisional races. The Bills are already -340 to win the AFC East, and the Bucs are -300 to win the NFC South. Dallas might already be dead, and it’s hard to see New York or Washington really keeping pace. The Eagles have a tough Week 2 test on Monday night against Minnesota, but if they win that game, they’re going to be runaway favorites. If you like Philly, this might be the best number you’ll get.
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