Report: Phillies would be ‘eager suitors’ for Xander Bogaerts

The expectation around the league appears to be that Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies will make at least one major investment this winter, potentially at the shortstop position.

Last offseason, the Phillies weren’t players in a loaded shortstop market that included Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Trevor Story. With more clarity about what they have in Bryson Stott and both Jean Segura and Didi Gregorius’ money potentially coming off the books this winter, there’s been quite a bit of buzz that the Phillies could be players this time around for a top shortstop.

Along those lines, Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reported over the weekend that he’s been told that should Xander Bogaerts hit the free-agent market this offseason, “the Phillies will be eager suitors.”

Bogaerts is widely expected to opt out of the remaining three years and $60 million on his current contract, in search of an even longer-term deal. It’s not clear exactly how the market will develop for Bogaerts, who will turn 30 in October, but it will seemingly take more than a four-year commitment to secure his services. Jon Heyman of The New York Post reported in April that Bogaerts viewed an offer from the Red Sox to add a fourth season for around $30 million onto the remaining years of his contract as a “slap in the face.”

The six-year/$120 million deal with a $20 million vesting option for a seventh season that Bogaerts is currently playing under was one he agreed to in April of 2019. At that time, the Red Sox were the defending World Series Champions, and Dombrowski was running their front office. Clearly then, the current Phillies president of baseball operations is fond of Bogaerts. It is fair to wonder if this buzz is a bit agent driven, but it was only a matter of time before the Phillies were mentioned as a possible suitor for the four-time All-Star’s services.

If the Phillies decline Jean Segura’s $17 million option for 2023 — which includes a $1 million buyout — that would mean that more than $29 million being paid to him and Gregorius this season would come off the books in the offseason. Segura remains an excellent player, and it’s possible the Phillies could decline his option but still bring him back at a lower price and have Stott play shortstop. But with Stott having shown he can handle second base, it’s hard not to have something of a wandering eye.

We aren’t yet convinced that Correa is a lock to opt out of the $70.2 million he’s owed over the next two seasons, but he could again be a free agent option at shortstop this offseason.

Dansby Swanson is having a career-year for the Atlanta Braves in 2022, as the 28-year-old has eight defensive runs saved, 18 outs above average and 5.7 fWAR. He can become a free agent this winter.

And there’s already been months worth of speculation about the Phillies being a landing spot for Trea Turner, who has flirted publicly with his former Washington Nationals teammate Bryce Harper. Bob Nightengale of USA Today wrote in June that “several talent evaluators predict that Turner will return East and wind up signing with the Phillies.”

Bogaerts is the oldest of the four shortstops, but is still slashing .319/.387/.473 with an .860 OPS in 2022, putting him on track to win his fifth Silver Slugger Award.

It should be noted that Bogaerts has -53 career defensive runs saved and -35 career outs above average at shortstop, which may not make him an ideal fit for a Phillies team without many above-average defenders. However, he’s graded out better than ever in the field this season, posting two defensive runs saved and five outs above average.

There’s long been a debate about whether Bogaerts would be more valuable as a third baseman. For what it’s worth, he said during Spring Training that shortstop is the position he wants to play. Perhaps a compromise could be that he begins his next contract at shortstop, but pivots to third if his defensive metrics plummet. Stott would still be in the picture and able to move back to his natural position of shortstop. Second base is a relatively replaceable position.

Turner will probably be the most coveted free agent at the position this offseason. But if he somehow proves to be unattainable, Bogaerts would be a hell of a fall-back option.

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