Oscar Experts Typing: Breaking down the early state of the Best Actress race

Welcome to Oscar Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Oscar race — via Slack, of course. This week, in our season premiere entry for the 2022-23 race, we look at Best Actress.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! We’re back for Season 3 of my favorite show: Oscar Experts Typing. Now that the Emmy Awards are mercifully finished — this year’s ceremony, which was not exactly what you want, happened at least five weeks ago (don’t tell me if I’m wrong) — we’re back to typing about all things Oscar season. As we discussed this week with our voices, the 2023 Oscars race is already topsy-turvy, as numerous presumed contenders divided festival audiences at Venice, Telluride and Toronto. One film that mostly made it through the maw relatively unscathed, however, is “The Woman King.” Even people who weren’t completely impressed by the Gina Prince-Bythewood film found it to be an entertaining and old-fashioned Hollywood epic with a titanic performance from Viola Davis and big supporting turns from 2022 BAFTA Rising Star Award winner Lashana Lynch and “The Underground Railroad” breakout Thuso Mbedu. We can table the movie’s Best Picture prospects (though I currently have it in) and its supporting contenders (ditto Lynch, who by all accounts, has the showiest part) to focus today on Davis and the Best Actress race. A four-time nominee — a record for Black actresses — Davis has reached the point in her career where I almost always hold a nomination spot for her in the early days. She’s kind of in that ’90s Meryl territory, where it’s easy to imagine her wracking up frequent nominations (if not many wins) over the next decade. So I had her in when we did our ridiculously early Oscar predictions in March and I’ve still got her here after the rush of September contenders. Assuming “The Woman King” does respectable business at the box office (with little competition between now and “Black Adam” in October, I think that’s a safe bet), this feels like the type of movie and performance that could sustain enough momentum to get Davis into the final five. (We already know she’ll get in with SAG Awards voters, right?) That would put Davis in competition with the presumed frontrunners in Cate Blanchett for “Tar,” Michelle Yeoh for “Everything Everywhere All At Once” and Olivia Colman for “Empire of Light.” Those three actresses feel like the safest bets right now, and we both have that trio getting in. I rounded out my five with Davis and Jennifer Lawrence, who got some of her best reviews in literal years for Apple’s “Causeway.”  What are you thinking in these early days?

joyceeng: Excuse you, I believe I said you can pencil in Davis for the SAG win. And I was only half-kidding. The SAG queen is 5-0 in individual categories since her first nom and loss for “Doubt.” Legendary behavior. If “The Woman King” takes off, it can probably make ensemble as well, especially since it’s coming out early enough. As for the Oscars, right now, I’d say only Blanchett and Yeoh are locked, the former with a capital L. Colman feels safest next. The reaction to “Empire of Light” was mixed, but few, if any, took issue with Colman, who is racking up noms at Streep speed now. And then I can see, like, five people duking it out for the last two spots. In the past week, I’ve rotated between Naomi Ackie for “I Wanna Dance with Somebody,” Danielle Deadwyler for “Till” and Margot Robbie for “Babylon.” Currently, I have Deadwyler and Robbie, but talk to me next week and I might have two different people. I haven’t yet moved in Davis because, are they going to go for two genre performances between her and Yeoh? Don’t get me wrong — would love to see it, but I’m waiting to see how “The Woman King” does first. There are also a few sorta biopic performances on deck: Ana de Armas as Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde,” this year’s “Spencer,” and Carey Mulligan as Megan Twohey in “She Said.” What if there’s a Best Actress rematch between Davis and Mulligan?

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Christopher Rosen: I love these early days because we’re not really in cross-off mode yet. That said, I don’t think de Armas has the juice to repeat Kristen Stewart’s path to a nomination (what a time we had last year when Stewart was the frontrunner to win after the festivals). Of the rest you mentioned, I’d rank Deadwyler at the top — she definitely feels like a future Oscar nominee and “Till” presumably provides her with a powerhouse role. (I’ve heard from people who have seen it who said she does deliver the goods.) But Mulligan is interesting. We spent almost two hours talking about the Oscars this week and barely even mentioned “She Said” or Mulligan and Zoe Kazan. In part, that is because “She Said” doesn’t premiere until next month at the New York Film Festival — and then also because the trailer makes it look like a movie that could have voters struggling to pick between the two stars. I was high on “She Said” in the earliest of early days — a “Spotlight”-esque drama about taking down Hollywood’s biggest predator feels like prime Oscar material — but I guess my enthusiasm has dimmed only because it’s still out of sight? Maybe that’ll change come October. I wanted to swing back to Colman. She’s customarily great in “Empire of Light,” but I do wonder if she could be the actor this year who everyone assumes is safe for a nomination and then on Oscar nomination morning next year she’s among the snubs. So much can happen between now and then, however, so let’s discuss the looming battle between Blanchett and Yeoh. The former has two Oscars and would reach some rarefied air with a third win — for a performance that I put on par with Daniel Day-Lewis’ work in “There Will Be Blood.” The latter is absolutely the fan favorite and probably should’ve gotten an Oscar nomination for “Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon” at the very least. How are you clocking this race right now?

joyceeng: Are you saying Colman will get Gaga’d? I can picture Colman’s performance not being most voters’ favorite of the year and we know you need those No. 1 votes for a nomination, but she’s so beloved that she can probably still happen. I have Blanchett winning her third on her eighth nom (C8 finally!). With these all-time raves, she could sweep as well. And voters have shown they have no problem re-gilding past champs. In the past five years, we’ve watched Frances McDormand win her second and her third acting Oscars and Renee Zellweger her second. Plus, Blanchett is clearly on nine-year cycles at the Oscars. “The Aviator” came out in 2004, “Blue Jasmine” was 2013, and now it’s 2022. Mark down 2031 for her fourth Oscar-winning turn. Yeoh is the Film Twitter pick and it’s tough luck she has to face off against Blanchett this year. She’s definitely not out of it at this point and will likely campaign more than Blanchett (over/under on how many tributes and honorary awards she’ll receive this season?), but I feel like Ke Huy Quan has a better chance of winning right now than she does, just given the states of their respective races. This week, we finally got trailers for two December releases. We’ve already discussed the bananas “Babylon” trailer, but what do you make of Ackie as Whitney Houston in “I Wanna Dance with Somebody,” which, if you haven’t heard, is from the writer of “Bohemian Rhapsody”?

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Christopher Rosen: I had two thoughts watching that new trailer: this movie is going to make a lot of money and it’s from the writer of “Bohemian Rhapsody.” I know you pegged Ackie early as a potential nominee and that was a sharp play: Oscar voters seemingly love a musical biopic. But the trailer led me to believe it’ll be less of an awards play and more of an audience favorite (2023 Cheer Moment leader in the clubhouse?) — and it doesn’t feel as dangerous, as it were, as “The United States vs. Billie Holiday,” where Andra Day left it all on the screen and got an Oscar nomination for her striking work. But did I sit here and wonder if Stanley Tucci playing Clive Davis like Jared Leto in “House of Gucci” might get a nomination? You know it. Joyce, I’ll let you have the last word here – we’re back!

joyceeng: I can’t believe it took you three passes to bring up Jared. I’m not going to lie — after the trailer, aka a collection of Ackie reenacting iconic Whitney moments, I was like, maybe I should put her back in. The Super Bowl performance will be its Live Aid moment. There better be a scene of Naomi Ackie as Whitney Houston as Rachel Marron winning Best Actress for “Queen of the Night” in “The Bodyguard” in “I Wanna Dance with Somebody.” This is how you manifest a win.

PREDICT the 2023 Oscar nominees by Jan. 24

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