Who Can Win & How, The IMSA Championship Permutations Ahead Of Petit Le Mans

Four of the five classes racing in the IMSA season finale at Michelin Raceway Road Atlanta won’t determine champions until the checkered flag waves after 10 hours of racing into the night.

The only outlier is in the GTD PRO class, where the #9 Pfaff Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R and drivers Matt Campbell and Mathieu Jaminet will sew up the driver, team and manufacturer titles by taking the green flag.

Here’s a summary of possibilities for the remaining four classes:

DPi

The only near certainty is that an Acura team will claim the DPi driver and team championships. If either the #10 Konica Minolta Acura ARX-05 or #60 Meyer Shank Racing with Curb-Agajanian Acura ARX-05 starts the race, it eliminates all the Cadillacs from title contention.

Then it’s down to an all-Acura tussle for the title. The #10, along with drivers Filipe Albuquerque and Ricky Taylor, hold a 14-point edge on the #60 after yesterday’s pole from Tom Blomqvist on drivers Blomqvist and Oliver Jarvis. A race win by either car will give it the championship, with one exception noted below.

Ironically, The #10 had the exact same 19-point margin heading into Motul Petit Le Mans in both 2021 and 2022 and last year was overtaken by the #31 Whelen Engineering Racing Cadillac DPi-V.R with drivers Pipo Derani and Felipe Nasr for the title.

The championship essentially now comes down to a winner-take-all scenario: The #60 car has to finish just one position ahead of the #10 to win the championship – unless the #60 finishes fifth. If that happens, the #10 has to finish seventh for the #60 to claim the title. The #10 only has to finish ahead of the #60 in any scenario.

LMP2

This class is unusual in 2022 because the driver and team champions could well come from different entrants. That’s because the #52 PR1 Mathiasen Motorsports ORECA LMP2 07 has employed two driver lineups this year – one for the IMSA Michelin Endurance Cup races and another for the sprint events.

The #52 has a 21-point lead over the #8 Tower Motorsport ORECA after qualifying, with the #18 Era Motorsport entry 52 points behind the leader. Depending on the number of LMP2 entries at Michelin Raceway (there were 10 in the Rolex 24 At Daytona), up to six teams could be eligible for the championship but it’s likely down to the three mentioned.

In the driver chase, John Farano (#8 Tower Motorsport) leads Dwight Merriman and Ryan Dalziel (#18 Era Motorsport) by 36 points. Steven Thomas (No. 11 PR1 Mathiasen Motorsports) is 96 points behind and Henrik Hedman and Juan Pablo Montoya (No. 81 DragonSpeed USA) are 111 points back. Farano wins the driver crown if the #8 wins, or finishes second. The options are multiple to determine the champion after that.

LMP3

Jon Bennett, Colin Braun and the #54 CORE autosport Ligier JS P320 hold the largest lead in any class other than GTD PRO, but don’t have anything secured. Essentially, they need to finish fourth or better to wrap things up.

To repeat as LMP3 champs, Gar Robinson and the #74 Riley Motorsports (second place, 78 points behind) need to win and have the #54 wind up fifth or worse. The task is more daunting for the #30 Sean Creech Motorsport Ligier with drivers Ari Balogh and Garett Grist (third place, 119 points behind). To take the title, they must win and have the #54 finish likely ninth as well as the #74 finishing third or worse.

GTD

As usual, the GTD class presents the most championship possibilities due to the sheer size of expected entrants (there were 22, 17 and 16 in the three previous endurance races this year). Six teams have at least a remote shot at glory.

The #27 Heart of Racing Team Aston Martin Vantage GT3 and driver Roman De Angelis lead. With a 45-point advantage, a second-place race finish and top-10 qualifying effort brings home the hardware. After that, the options for the #27 and De Angelis to still win the championship are multiple depending on where the other competitors finish.

Stevan McAleer and the #32 Team Korthoff Motorsports Mercedes-AMG GT3 are second in the standings. They need to win and have the #27 finish fourth or lower to guarantee the title.

Jan Heylen, Ryan Hardwick and the #16 Wright Motorsports Porsche 911 GT3 R are third in points, 57 from the lead. They could also take GTD honors by winning and seeing the No. 27 finish fourth or worse, though qualifying results could play a role as well.

The other three contenders, the #57 Winward Racing Mercedes, #96 Turner Motorsport BMW M4 GT3 and #39 CarBahn with Peregrine Racing Lamborghini Huracán GT3, each need to win and have those ahead of them finish far down the race order.

The GTD manufacturer standings find five OEMs clustered within 81 points at the top. BMW leads by 23 points over Mercedes-AMG, but with a likely 110-point differential from first to last in the race, this championship is as wide open as the driver and team titles in the class.