Gutting of Roe depressed rural voter turnout, hurting Republicans in special elections

A new analysis by Politico of voting patterns in special elections since the Supreme Court struck down Roe v. Wade shows that rural voters have been less likely to turn out than their urban and suburban counterparts.

While high turnout among Democratic voters has been hailed as key to Democrats' better-than-expected showings in a handful of special elections since the Dobbs ruling, the rural nonvote has proven to be another factor working to Democrats’ advantage.

Politico looked at four special elections since the June ruling held in Nebraska, New York, and Minnesota and found that the portion of urban/suburban voters who cast ballots in those races outpaced the portion of rural voters who did by 5 points, 27%-22%. Prior to the Dobbs decision, those three groups were turning out at comparable rates.