LPAs inside and outside PAR develop into tropical depressions

MANILA, Philippines – The low pressure area inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility developed into a tropical depression at 12 am on Tuesday, October 11, while the LPA outside PAR also became a tropical depression at 8 pm on Monday, October 10.

The tropical depression inside PAR was given the local name Maymay, as the country’s 13th tropical cyclone for 2022. It is also the first tropical cyclone for the month of October.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) will issue its first bulletin on Maymay at 5 am on Tuesday.

But in an advisory at 11 pm on Monday, when Maymay was still an LPA, PAGASA said it was located 390 kilometers east of Casiguran, Aurora, moving west toward extreme Northern Luzon.

The weather bureau had warned of rain on Tuesday due to the now-tropical depression as well as the shear line, particularly in the following provinces:

Moderate to heavy rain

• Cagayan
• Batanes
• Apayao
• Ilocos Norte

Light to moderate rain, with at times heavy rain

• Isabela
• Kalinga
• Abra
• Mountain Province

PAGASA said floods and landslides are likely.

Meanwhile, the tropical depression outside PAR was located 1,620 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas on Monday evening, moving west southwest at a relatively fast 40 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h and gustiness of up to 55 km/h.

PAGASA expects this tropical depression to head north northwest in the next 12 hours, then turn northwest on Wednesday, October 12, as it slows down over the Philippine Sea.

Based on the tropical depression’s latest forecast track, it may enter PAR on Thursday morning, October 13. It would be given the local name Neneng.

Still on Thursday, it could decelerate further and become stationary over the Philippine Sea.

While over the Philippine Sea, it may intensify into a tropical storm within 72 hours.

PAGASA said it is not ruling out the possibility of a tropical cyclone wind signal being raised for extreme Northern Luzon due to the potential Neneng.

It could also cause rough seas in the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon starting Saturday, October 15, or late Friday, October 14. This may be risky for small vessels.

PAGASA expects 5 to 9 tropical cyclones to enter or develop inside PAR from October 2022 to March 2023. Per month, these are the weather bureau’s estimates:

• October 2022 – 2 to 4
• November 2022 – 2 or 3
• December 2022 – 1 or 2
• January 2023 – 0 or 1
• February 2023 – 0 or 1
• March 2023 – 0 or 1

– Rappler.com