The odds of a US recession by October 2023 have risen to 100% from 65% in the last Bloomberg Economics forecast.
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
There's now a 100% chance the US economy will enter recession within a year, Bloomberg Economics said.
Its forecast comes as tight monetary policy, inflation and growing geopolitical tensions squeeze the economy.
The Biden administration has played down growing gloomy warnings ahead of midterm elections in November.
There's a 100% chance the US economy will tip into a recession within 12 months, a statistical analysis by Bloomberg Economics has found.
It's almost a sure thing that a sustained and severe slowdown will hit the US by October 2023, the report Monday said. Its last modeling found 65% odds of a recession in the same period, a sign that pressures are building.
The forecast comes as the economy is squeezed by a combination of inflation at 40-year highs, big interest-rate hikes and growing geopolitical tensions.
Leading investors like Bill Ackman have flagged the risk of a US recession next year, pointing to pressures such as the impact of rising interest rates on mortgages — though none have called it a certainty.
But the Biden administration has played down the gloomy warnings, looking to take an upbeat tone in the runup to crucial midterm elections in November. President Joe Biden hopes to reassure Americans that the economy is being well managed.
"The economy is strong as hell," Biden said on the campaign trail this weekend, media reports said.
Investors are watching to see whether the Fed will hit the economy too hard with the series of aggressive rate hikes it's using to cool red-hot inflation. It's lifted the benchmark rate to a range of 3% to 3.25% and has signaled further increases to come.
Bloomberg's recession probabliity model — which uses 13 macroeconomic and financial indicators — laid out an increase in odds of a recession hitting in a shorter timeframe. It found a 73% chance of an economic downturn within 11 months and a 25% probability within 10 months.
Спортивные игры в СЛД "Москва-Сортировочная" филиала "Московский"
Более 40 тысяч семей в Москве и области получают ежемесячные выплаты из средств материнского капитала
Филиал № 4 ОСФР по Москве и Московской области информирует:
За полгода 14,9 тысячи жителей Московского региона оформили страховую пенсию в автоматическом режиме на портале госуслуг
Филиал № 4 ОСФР по Москве и Московской области информирует:
Родители 240,5 тыс. детей в Московской области получают единое пособие
Why you should buy physical copies of your favorite books
Kamala Harris’s Record on Israel Raises Questions About Support for Jewish State if Elected US President
Exclusive - Sayantani Ghosh expresses happiness as sets of her show Dahej Daasi shifted close to her home; says 'I've been manifesting this for quite some time now'
Mikel Arteta demands more Arsenal signings as he gives cryptic update on Riccardo Calafiori transfer
A Google Doodle animator is my new favorite Elden Ring lore theorist thanks to this cartoon retelling of Shadow of the Erdtree set to a Taylor Swift song
Conscript is an old school survival horror game where the horror is just that you're in World War 1
D&D's new 2024 Player's Handbook will have 10 species to choose from including goliaths, and drow will be closer to their Baldur's Gate 3 version
Warner Bros acquires MultiVersus devs as it shifts focus to free-to-play