Pac-12 picks: WSU takes center stage Thursday night with a course correction in mind
Three of the conference leaders are huge favorites in Week Nine, although two are on the road.
Washington State has been out of sight and largely out of mind for 10 days in advance of its Thursday night duel with 14th-ranked Utah.
Which version of the Cougars will take the field at 7 p.m. on what should be a chilly but dry night in the Palouse?
No team in the Pac-12 owns a line of demarcation quite as bold and obvious as WSU.
For three games and 54 minutes, the Cougars looked like a contender. They won at Wisconsin, owned a 3-0 record and held a 12-point lead over Oregon midway through the fourth quarter.
But since that point, the Cougars (4-3, 1-3) have looked decidedly average.
They collapsed down the stretch against the Ducks, allowing three touchdowns in three minutes in a come-from-ahead loss, and haven’t been the same.
Mostly, the offense has vanished.
The Cougars scored 14 points in a loss at USC and 10 in a defeat at Oregon State. They have dropped three of their past four games and are closer to the bottom of the standings than the top.
Quarterback Cam Ward has eight touchdown passes and five interceptions in conference play.
The running game has been spotty.
The right side of the offensive line is muddled.
Two key playmakers, receiver Renard Bell and tailback Nakia Watson, are hurt.
And the defense, while highly disruptive, is not impervious.
You can win more often than you lose in the Pac-12 by holding opponents to 27 points per game … unless your offense only averages 23.
Without an effort comparable to what they unleashed on the Ducks for 54 minutes — except extended over the full 60 — the loss total is likely to mount Thursday night.
And at that point, a bowl berth that once looked inevitable could begin to appear hazy.
To the picks …
Last week: 2-2
Season: 27-23
Five-star special: 5-3
Spreads taken from BetMGM
Game totals in parenthesis
All times Pacific
Idle: Oregon State and Washington
Utah at Washington State (Thursday)
Kickoff: 7 p.m. on FS1
Line: Utah -7.5 (total: 55.5)
Comment: The Utes are desperate in a different way than WSU: They must win to keep pace with Oregon and the L.A. schools in the race for a berth in the conference championship. Given extra time to prepare, the Cougars undoubtedly will have a plan to slow Utah’s ace tight end, Dalton Kincaid, and force someone else to make plays. But can they execute on the strategy? The Utes have won the past three meetings, all in Salt Lake City. We expect the Cougars to show well at home and will gladly take the touchdown.
Pick: Washington State
Oregon at Cal
Kickoff: 12:30 p.m. on FS1
Line: Oregon -17.5 (total: 58.5)
Comment: The Ducks are rolling; the Bears, reeling. But we should remind onlookers of the point spreads and results from the past three matchups: In 2019, Oregon was favored by 20 and won by 10; in 2020, Oregon was favored by nine and lost by four; and in 2021, Oregon was favored by 13 and won by seven. Will this edition of the series unfold any differently? We’re skeptical. When something feels as obvious as an Oregon blowout, it’s best to veer in the other direction.
Pick: Cal
USC at Arizona
Kickoff: 4 p.m. on Pac-12 Networks
Line: USC -15.5 (total: 75.5)
Comment: Both teams had two weeks to prepare, recover from losses in Week Seven and focus on their wobbly defenses. This matchup is about third-down stops, and we view USC’s defense as slightly more likely to get off the field. (Also worth noting: Arizona quarterback Jayden de Laura did not play well against the Trojans in his two games with Washington State.) Look for a back-and-forth affair for three quarters before USC takes control. But that number leaves the back door wide open for the Wildcats to cover in the final minutes.
Pick: Arizona
Arizona State at Colorado
Kickoff: 4:30 p.m. on ESPNU
Line: ASU -13.5 (total: 46.5)
Comment: What of the states of mind on both sidelines? The Sun Devils haven’t been eliminated from the postseason, but their path narrowed considerably with the loss last week at Stanford, and it’s easier for focus to wane with an interim coach at the helm. (See: USC 2021.) The same goes for the Buffaloes, who mustered a better performance two weeks ago against Cal, then reverted to form in a blowout loss at Oregon State. Even if the psyches are comparable, ASU has a significant edge in another important area: playmakers.
Pick: Arizona State
Stanford at UCLA
Kickoff: 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
Line: UCLA -16.5 (total: 64.5)
Comment: How will the Bruins respond following a sound beating (at Oregon) in their biggest game in years? Letdowns are less likely when you possess a first-rate running game, and UCLA should have no trouble moving the ball against an improved-but-still-wobbly Cardinal defense. Stanford scored 31 points combined in its previous two games and somehow won both (Notre Dame and ASU). It will need more than that to stay within range of the Bruins deep into the fourth quarter.
Pick: UCLA
Straight-up winners: Utah, Oregon, USC, ASU and UCLA
Five-star special: Arizona. Is USC’s defense good enough to stop Arizona’s attack enough times that a back-door cover isn’t possible? We think not.
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