Europe's at risk of a natural gas shortage next year, and stockpiles may only get 65% full, IEA says

IEA chief Fatih Birol said "there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe's gas supplies."

• Europe's natural gas shortfall next year could get more dire as Russia continues supply cuts and Chinese demand rebounds, the IEA said.
• The energy watchdog reiterated its call to tame gas demand across the continent to ease constraints. 
• IEA chief Fatih Birol said "there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe's gas supplies."

While Europe's natural gas stockpiles are nearly full heading into this winter, the situation looks more dire next year, the International Energy Agency warned.

Europe faces a supply gap of as much as 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas during the summer period for refilling storage sites in 2023, the energy watchdog said in report published Thursday.

"With the recent mild weather and lower gas prices, there is a danger of complacency creeping into the conversation around Europe's gas supplies, but we are by no means out of the woods yet," said IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol said in a statement. "When we look at the latest trends and likely developments in global and European gas markets, we see that Europe is set to face an even sterner challenge next winter."

This year so far, Europe has imported record levels of liquefied natural gas, and has benefited from a less severe winter than anticipated. Warm temperatures and milder weather forecasts has led to recent price declines in European natural gas. 

But Birol warned Thursday that Europe needs to take immediate action to avoid the risk of a natural gas shortage next year.

There's a chance Russian gas deliveries stop completely by next winter, the IEA said, or fall to less than half of what they were this year. And China, meanwhile, could ease its zero-COVID policies which would bring natural gas demand roaring back to pre-pandemic levels.

Birol noted that the supply gap could mean Europe lacks roughly half the volume it needs to fill stockpiles up to 95% by next winter. Unless that gap is narrowed, storage facilities may only fill up to 65%, he said.

Moving forward, the IEA plans to urge European governments to implement policy for alternative energy and renewables, as well as tapping into nuclear energy in some countries, Birol said.