Champions League Last-16 Draw Scenarios and Possibilities
A late curveball altered PSG’s outlook, while Portugal’s two group winners makes for a unique twist, once the competition resumes in mid-February.
The UEFA Champions League group stage came to an end Wednesday, and while much of the drama regarding which clubs were advancing to the knockout stage had already been sorted, there was one last twist that may have major ramifications.
Benfica’s 6–1 win over Maccabi Haifa could easily be one of those butterfly-effect moments that we look back on at the end of the season. By virtue of the rout, Benfica wound up edging out PSG for first place in their group on the seventh tiebreaker. Both clubs were 4-0-2 in the group, level on points atop the four-team table with 14, and after they played to a pair of 1–1 draws in their head-to-head matchups, it set off a run down the tiebreaker list that shifted to group-wide stats. But both each 16 goals scored and seven conceded total, which brought things to away goals scored in the group. Benfica had a 9–6 edge over PSG there, meaning João Mário’s strike in stoppage time was one of great consequence—at least in theory.
Then again, when the competition resumes, who knows what the landscape will look like? An in-season World Cup will surely take a toll emotionally, physically and mentally on the players involved—and especially those whose national teams embark on deep runs in Qatar. Beyond that, there’s a transfer window that may alter things, and any brilliant runs of form clubs are enjoying now—looking at you, Napoli—will need to effectively be resurrected or started from scratch after the club layoff of roughly six weeks.
Nevertheless, after Benfica’s late scoring binge to close the round, the two pots for Monday’s draw are as follows:
Group winners: Napoli, Porto, Bayern Munich, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Benfica
Group runners-up: Liverpool, Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, PSG
Clubs cannot be drawn against those who were in their group, nor can they be drawn against those from the same league at this juncture. That’s more limiting for some clubs than others due to the performance of leagues as a whole—the Premier League and Bundesliga each fielded four teams in the last 16, for instance, while La Liga has only one—and while being in Pot 1 doesn’t necessarily guarantee a nominally easier matchup, it does increase the chances of a more favorable pairing. Here’s who each team can draw for a round that doesn’t begin until mid-February:
Napoli: Club Brugge, Eintracht Frankfurt, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, PSG
Porto: Liverpool, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, PSG
Bayern Munich: Liverpool, Club Brugge, AC Milan, PSG
Tottenham: Club Brugge, Inter Milan, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, PSG
Chelsea: Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund, PSG
Real Madrid: Liverpool, Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, Borussia Dortmund, PSG
Manchester City: Club Brugge, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, PSG
Benfica: Liverpool, Inter Milan, Eintracht Frankfurt, AC Milan, RB Leipzig, Borussia Dortmund
Of the group winners, Bayern has the fewest options yet still boasts a wide array of outcomes. As impressive as Brugge was it’ll likely be every seeded pot team’s top choice. Bayern-PSG, meanwhile, was a Champions League final just over two years ago. After Napoli’s defeat to Liverpool on the final matchday, Bayern was the only side to go a perfect 6-0-0 through group play, and it did so in one of the toughest groups in the competition.
Liverpool: Porto, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Benfica
Club Brugge: Napoli, Bayern Munich, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Benfica
Inter Milan: Porto, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Benfica
Eintracht Frankfurt: Napoli, Porto, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Benfica
AC Milan: Porto, Bayern Munich, Tottenham, Real Madrid, Manchester City, Benfica
RB Leipzig: Napoli, Porto, Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester City, Benfica
Borussia Dortmund: Napoli, Porto, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Benfica
PSG: Napoli, Porto, Bayern Munich, Tottenham, Chelsea, Real Madrid, Manchester City
PSG has opened itself up, on paper, to a significantly more difficult path, and for a club so hell-bent on winning this competition, Benfica’s scoring surge has introduced some uncomfortable scenarios for the first knockout round. A rematch with Real Madrid, after everything that transpired this summer surrounding Kylian Mbappé, would simultaneously be fascinating and brutal. Bayern, Man City and Napoli would also be supremely challenging, especially at this juncture. At a certain point, giant clubs are going to need to topple other giants to win this title, but to have to do that for every knockout round is a tall task—particularly for a club that has a history of flailing against that very competition.