MMO Free Agent Profile: Aaron Judge, RF

Aaron Judge

Position: Right fielder
Bats/Throws: R/R
Age: 30 (26/04/1992)

2022 Traditional Stats: 157 G, 696 PA, .311/.425/.686/1.111, 62 HR, 131 RBI, 177 H
2022 Advanced Stats: 211 OPS+, 10.6 bWAR, 16.0 BB%, 25.1 SO%, 61.9 HardH%, .340 BAbip, .375 ISO

Rundown

This is shaping up to be a truly wild offseason in Major League Baseball and it will all revolve around Aaron Judge, who will undoubtedly enter free agency as the biggest and most attractive prize available. Put it simply; Judge is going to be this winter’s white whale and every team will be casting their net far and wide to try and catch him.

Long regarded as one of the faces of baseball, Judge truly cemented his status as a modern day unicorn with a season for the ages in 2022. There probably aren’t enough superlatives out there to describe what was an historic offensive masterclass, and we aren’t likely to see such a pure, majestic display of raw power and sheer offensive brilliance again anytime soon.

Judge mashed his way to greatness in style last year, breaking long-standing, historical records left and right while oozing absolute swagger at the plate. There’s few more majestic sights than seeing the six-foot-seven, 282 pound monster launch moonshot after moonshot into the air with a swing so violent but yet so graceful at the same time.

Setting the tone for the offense from day one of the season, the 30-year-old blasted 62 home runs, breaking Roger Maris‘ long-time American League record for most homers in a single season. Pure, brutal power aside, though, Judge was a hitting machine as he became the consistent straw that stirred the drink for the Yankees offense all year long. He drove in 131 RBI, tied with the Mets’ Pete Alonso, he hit 28 doubles, scored 133 runs, stole 16 bases and walked 111 times.

Judge slashed .311/.425/.686 on the year with a monster 1.111 OPS, while he also finished with a 10.6 WAR and an OPS+ of 211. A lot of the veteran’s underlying metrics also pop out too. For instance, his 8.1 WPA for 2022 was the highest mark since Ryan Howard (8.2) and Albert Pujols (9.4) achieved that feat in 2006. Mickey Mantle was also the last Yankee to achieve a higher WPA; posting a mark of 9.0 back in 1961.

Put simply; Judge’s monster year ranks as not only one of the best offensive seasons in the rich history of the Yankees, but also as one of the most historical performances at the plate in the entire history of Major League Baseball. And, what makes the slugger’s exploits in 2022 even more impressive is the fact that he started out by hitting just one dinger in his first 13 games.

Of course, we’ve always known the makeup of Judge. Built like an offensive lineman, the right fielder is all power and he wasted little time in proving his credentials by blasting 52 homers in his rookie year back in 2016. He hit 27 in each of the next two seasons – we’ll ignore the shortened COVID-19 year in 2020 – before blasting 39 long balls in 2021. But, as has always been the case, Judge can also put the ball in play and get runners on base as backed up by his stellar .311 batting average and .425 on-base percentage in 2022.

With a career .276 batting average in nearly 2,500 plate appearances, Judge can hit for average as well being able to hit for absolute power, and he is simply a one-man wrecking ball at the top of a lineup. One that can put the ball in play, blow a game open with a huge grand slam and drive runners home with an opposite field single. He can do it all at the plate.

Furthermore; Judge has proved himself to be an elite right fielder with his height giving him the ability to rob home runs and execute highlight-reel plays at the wall. He can also play in center field and his versatility, coupled with his strong arm, makes him a valuable asset out in the field too.

The only blemish against Judge was his lack of durability. Due to his gigantic frame, the slugger has been unable to stay on the field having played in 112 games in 2018 and in just 102 the following year. He has also failed to appear in more than 160 games throughout his career. However, having remained largely healthy in each of the past two seasons, coupled with a remarkable 2022, Judge may well have just convinced a few teams that the gamble of a big-ticket, long-term contract is worth the risk.

Contract

One of the biggest storylines heading into the 2022 season was the fact that Judge had turned down a seven-year, $213.5 million contract from the Yankees in order to bet on himself. There were a plethora of experts who felt that may have been too much of a risk given his injury history but, instead, the ultimate gamble paid off as Judge put himself in line for a huge payday.

The power hitter will get more than the money offered to him prior to the start of the season, whether that is by the Yankees or another team. All forecasts seem to predict that Judge will land a monster contract worth over $400 million, and it could even be a lot more than that. Put simply; the four-time All-Star has rightly earned a gigantic payday and he will get every penny he deserves one way or another in the winter.

One of the other caveats at play here is the length of the deal Judge is seeking in free agency. At the time he turned down the offer from the Yankees back in the offseason, it was believed that the right fielder wanted a long-term contract and more years than the seven offered by his current employer. Of course, giving any player over 30 a long-term contract worth millions is never a smart business move, but especially so in Judge’s case given that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy for the vast majority of his career.

Plus, with a hulking frame, Judge is unlikely to age well the older he gets and his talents may well diminish, meaning that the latter years of any potential deal could prove to be an almighty albatross around the neck of whichever team is lucky enough to land the superstar. However, the pain of tomorrow will be easier to swallow if Judge can help a team win a World Series or two in the next few years. As a result, don’t be surprised to see Judge sign a long-term deal worth between the $400-$450 million mark this winter, whether that’s in New York or elsewhere.

Recommendation

As reported by Andy Martino of SNY, the Mets don’t want to engage in a bidding war with the Yankees for Judge, especially with so many other needs to address. And, with Francisco Lindor already earning $341 million over 10 years, you can understand why owner Steve Cohen would be reluctant to give another big long-term contract.

However, all bets should be off when a player of Judge’s stature and considerable talents hit the open market and, should the Yankees exit the race at any point, the Mets need to push themselves to the front of the queue. After all, Judge is a generational player and his electric bat would provide some much-needed pop and raw power at the top of the lineup. This team also needs a player who can hit for average, put the ball in play, drive in runs and provide solid defense. Judge ticks all of those boxes.

So, if the opportunity presents itself, the Mets should absolutely make a run at Judge. Those types of players don’t become available all that often and he could be the piece to push this team over the top in their bid to win a World Series. Plus, Judge signing in Queens would represent a seismic shift in New York baseball and all eyes would suddenly pivot from the Pinstripes to Citi Field. And that isn’t a bad thing at all.

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