'Excellent chance' Dems could have control of Senate even before Georgia runoff: expert

On Thursday, Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report speculated on Twitter that there is now a good chance Democrats will have secured a 50-seat majority in the U.S. Senate before the final race is even decided in the Georgia Senate runoff in December.

"After last night's [Nevada] mail ballot trend, excellent chance now that Dems will have 50 Senate seats/control in hand heading into the [Georgia] runoff," Wasserman tweeted.

So far, Republicans have won every Senate seat that took place in a state former President Donald Trump carried in 2020, including Florida, Ohio, Iowa, and North Carolina. They also very narrowly carried the Wisconsin Senate race, with Sen. Ron Johnson winning by fewer than 40,000 votes even as Democratic Gov. Tony Evers cruised to a more than 3-point re-election.

Democrats, meanwhile, defended Sen. Maggie Hassan in New Hampshire, flipped the open Pennsylvania seat with Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, and were held to a runoff in Georgia, with Sen. Rev. Raphael Warnock winning a plurality over former NFL star Herschel Walker but not getting 50 percent.

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That leaves two major Senate races uncalled, with Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly holding a narrow lead over venture capitalist Blake Masters in Arizona, and Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto trailing by fewer than 20,000 votes against former state Attorney General Adam Laxalt in Nevada. Both races still have large tranches of ballots to count, and so far Democrats have won the incoming batches by a respectable margin, leading some experts to think both Kelly and Cortez Masto are favorites to win. If both of them are victorious, Democrats achieve a majority with 50 Senate seats, regardless of what happens in Georgia.

Some analysts, like former Missouri Sen. Claire McCaskill, have speculated that if Democrats win the required 50 Senate seats for a majority, Walker's candidacy could collapse, as Republican voters would not be motivated to turn out for a heavily scandal-plagued candidate if his victory cannot decide control of the chamber.