Why didn’t Republicans win big? They can’t get out of their own way
How Republicans failed to turn the 2022 campaign into a referendum on Biden’s performance.
Tuesday's midterm election results demonstrate that American politics is so intensely polarized, so deeply partisan, that it’s difficult for one party to gain a decisive advantage. We face a dangerous deadlock in democracy.
While Joe Biden is president, the nation will not regress — but under projected Republican control of the U.S. House, we won’t make any progress dealing with daunting domestic and international problems.
Republicans left a lot of money at the table Tuesday. Overwhelming numbers of voters in national exit polling believe the nation is heading in the wrong direction, and most were critical of the president’s performance.
Republicans likely will win barely enough seats to take control House — far short of the historic midterm standard for opposition party gains when the president’s job rating is less than 50 percent. Presumed House Speaker-elect Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has a lot of explaining to do following his party’s tepid performance.
The time was ripe for a big GOP majority, but Republicans fumbled their opportunities. Concerns about the economy and hostility toward President Biden created conditions conducive for a red tsunami or a red wave, but the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision and former President Donald Trump both dampened GOP dreams.
The most significant and surprising piece of data from exit polling was the strength of the pro-choice vote in support of abortion access. There were almost as many voters concerned about abortion as there were who worried about inflation. In Pennsylvania, where Democrat John Fetterman flipped a GOP Senate seat, there was more concern about abortion than inflation.
Pro-choice forces won ballot questions in the purple state of Michigan and even in bright-red Kentucky. Nationally, six out of 10 voters said abortion should be legal in all or most situations. So, Republicans’ extreme abortion stands helped Democrats with moderate and independent voters.
Republicans bet that inflation would carry them to victory, but it barely pushed them past the starting line. There was slightly more concern about pumped up prices than the loss of reproductive rights — but the Democratic margin of victory among pro-choice supporters was greater than the Republican edge among inflation victims.
However, exit polls also indicated that Democrats don’t have answers for people concerned about the impact of skyrocketing prices for gas and groceries. Few voters felt good about the economy, and many fault the president’s performance. The pressure on Democrats to develop a clear, concise policy and message to reduce voters’ economic anxiety will only increase next year, when many economists predict the economy will continue to deteriorate.
A week before Election Day, Biden threatened oil companies with an excess profits tax, which is popular with voters. It was too little, too late, for Democrats who could have effectively used the issue as the foundation of an aggressive populist approach to inflation fears.
The midterms were the prelude to presidential politics as well as a forum for voters to express their concerns. A red wave would have increased Democratic pressure on Biden to opt out of a 2024 reelection effort. Now, a Republican-controlled House with a bare majority offers a convenient foil for him to blame Republicans for obstructing his agenda.
Republicans hoped to turn the 2022 campaign into a referendum on Biden’s performance. Instead, it became a choice between the current chief executive and his equally, if not even more unpopular, predecessor. Trump’s failure to leave the limelight hurt Republicans this year and threatens Republican prospects for 2024.
It was a good night for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R), who won reelection by nearly 20 points and poses the biggest conservative threat to Trump’s dominion. The governor is a committed conservative without personal baggage — but the former president’s refusal to get out of the way for 2024 could be a big obstacle in the path of DeSantis’ presidential aspirations.
DeSantis would be a strong 2024 candidate. But Trump’s diehard primary supporters will ensure that Biden will face a bloodied GOP nominee in the fall of 2024.
The GOP just can’t get out of its own way.
Brad Bannon is a Democratic pollster and CEO of Bannon Communications Research. His podcast, “Deadline D.C. with Brad Bannon,” airs on Periscope TV and the Progressive Voices Network. Follow him on Twitter @BradBannon.