Pac-12 power ratings: With one non-conference game left, the outlook for Selection Sunday is grim
The Pac-12's awful non-conference record suggest a paucity of NCAA Tournament berths await.
League play began in full force last week, although one non-conference game remains for the Pac-12. Later this month, Stanford will host Chicago State as a warm-up for its date with Cal a few days later.
If we assume a victory for the Cardinal — that’s not unreasonable: Chicago State is 3-14 — then the Pac-12 will finish non-conference play with an 84-48 record, or 63.6 winning percentage.
That’s not good, folks.
In fact, it’s much closer to awful than respectable.
It’s the worst non-conference winning percentage in the Power Six and the third-worst for the Pac-12 since the conference expanded in the 2011-12 season.
Back then, the league won just 61.1 percent of its non-conference games.
In the 2018-19 season, it won 61.3 percent of them.
Because of the multiplier effect baked into the primary tools used for determining NCAA Tournament at-large bids — first the RPI, now the NET rankings — a poor non-conference winning percentage limits the upside for any league.
When the Pac-12’s win rate was 61.1 percent more than a decade ago, it sent just one at-large team to the NCAAs.
When the win rate was 61.3 percent four years ago, it received just two at-large bids.
That’s not to suggest the conference’s fate is sealed with two months remaining in the 2022-23 regular season. Arizona and UCLA are locks for March Madness in the event neither team claims the automatic berth by winning the Pac-12 tournament. And Utah, the season’s biggest surprise, is reasonably well positioned for an at-large bid, as well.
But the conference needs the right teams to thrive in order to increase its pool of at-large candidates. Arizona State, Oregon and USC are atop that list, and each has a difficult road ahead. The avoidance of bad losses is as critical as the collection of quality wins.
All in all, the Pac-12’s outlook for Selection Sunday is bright at the top — Arizona and UCLA are strong contenders for high seeds — but bleak in the middle.
To the power ratings …
(NET rankings through Monday)
1. Arizona (13-1/2-1)
Results: won at Arizona State 69-60
Next up: vs. Washington (Thursday)
NET ranking: 4
Comment: The quest for a No. 1 seed requires a bit of scoreboard-watching: Arizona needs its marquee non-conference victims, Indiana and Tennessee, to fare well in their conference races.
2. UCLA (13-2/4-0)
Results: won at WSU 67-66 and Washington 74-49
Next up: vs. USC (Thursday)
NET ranking: 5
Comment: The equivalent non-conference pieces on UCLA’s resume, Maryland and Kentucky, have sputtered at the start of their league seasons.
3. Utah (11-4/4-0)
Results: won at Cal 58-43 and at Stanford 71-66
Next up: vs. Oregon State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 33
Comment: Craig Smith is on pace to wrap up Pac-12 Coach of the Year honors before February, especially if the Utes get a split in Los Angeles next week.
4. Arizona State (11-3/2-1)
Results: lost to Arizona 69-60
Next up: vs. WSU (Thursday)
NET ranking: 56
Comment: Good big people beat good little people more often than the other way around.
5. Oregon (8-6/2-1)
Results: beat Oregon State 77-68
Next up: at Colorado (Thursday)
NET ranking: 72
Comment: Only 14 or 15 more games like that from Will Richardson (22 points on 14 shots, one turnover), and the Ducks will challenge Arizona and UCLA for the conference title.
6. USC (11-4/3-1)
Results: won at Washington 80-67, lost at WSU 81-71
Next up: at UCLA (Thursday)
NET ranking: 85
Comment: Even though WSU shot a whopping 48.3 percent from 3-point range on Sunday afternoon (14-of-29), we can state with full confidence that it wasn’t the worst defensive performance by a USC team over the holiday weekend.
7. Colorado (6-9/1-3)
Results: won at Stanford 73-70, lost at Cal 80-76
Next up: vs. Oregon (Thursday)
NET ranking: 74
Comment: The ghastly loss at Cal carried limited NET damage, but it could weigh heavily on the selection committee … if the Buffs are part of the at-large discussion.
8. Washington State (6-9/1-3)
Results: lost to UCLA 67-66, beat USC 81-71
Next up: at Arizona State (Thursday)
NET ranking: 84
Comment: The Cougars were a few seconds from what would have been a superb sweep, and that’s the challenge moving forward: closing out games. They lost to Utah, Baylor and UNLV by a combined total of 12 points.
9. Oregon State (7-7/1-2)
Results: lost at Oregon 77-68
Next up: at Utah (Thursday)
NET ranking: 221
Comment: On the bright side: The Beavers finish the regular season with five of seven at home, providing a chance to build momentum for the Pac-12 tournament.
10. Washington (9-6/1-3)
Results: lost to USC 80-67 and UCLA 74-49
Next up: at Arizona (Thursday)
NET ranking: 144
Comment: The schedule is rugged for the next month, with the exception of a visit by the Bay Area schools next weekend. So the Huskies could be far below .500 in league play when the stretch run begins.
11. Stanford (5-9/0-4)
Results: lost to Colorado 73-70 and Utah 71-66
Next up: at Cal (Friday)
NET ranking: 108
Comment: The Cardinal would be a lock for any postseason event involving horseshoes or hand grenades.
12. Cal (2-13/1-3)
Results: lost to Utah 58-43, beat Colorado 80-76
Next up: vs. Stanford (Friday)
NET ranking: 299
Comment: It’s official: The Bears won’t finish 0-20 in conference play! Break open the champagne.
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