Chargers-Broncos Week 18 Betting Preview

The Broncos are 1.5-point home favorites with the Chargers potentially sitting some key starters.

Based on the betting line, the Chargers have informed the sportsbooks of their intentions on sitting their star player vs. Denver. Los Angeles locked up a playoff berth while waiting to see if they are the fifth or sixth seed. The Broncos have lost 11 of their last 13 games.

Austin Ekeler needs 119 yards rushing to reach 1,000 for the first time in his career. If he is active, I don’t expect him to see the field for more than a handful of plays. The Chargers have viable backup running back options, but I can’t see Chase Daniels having success passing the ball due to a drop-off in expected receiving talent.

Denver showed regression on defense over the past four games (12 touchdowns, 12 field goals, and 137 points). Over their first 12 matchups, the Broncos allowed fewer than 20 points in nine games. Quarterbacks gain only 6.3 yards per pass attempt with 18 touchdowns. Denver failed to record a sack in their last two contests (35 sacks on the year). They allow 4.3 yards per rush, with running backs scoring 15 touchdowns (four receiving and 11 rushing).

Over the first 12 games, Denver scored more than one touchdown in only one matchup. Their offense was much better over the past four weeks (28, 24, 14, and 24 points), leading to 11 scores over their 48 possessions. They ran the ball well over this span (19/106, 34/168/2, 20/104/1, and 24/117/2). However, their offensive line allowed a ton of sacks (61 – 23 over the previous four weeks), creating a short passing window (only 6.8 yards per pass attempt and 15 passing touchdowns.)

The Chargers’ defense played well over their four-game winning streak (17, 14, 3, and 10 points). Despite their success, they played four teams (Miami – 1-5, Tennessee – 0-6, Indianapolis – 0-6, and the Rams – 2-4) with three combined wins over their last six matchups.

Chargers vs. Broncos Odds

Moneyline: Chargers (+110) | Broncos (-133)
Spread: LAC +1.5 (-110) | DEN -1.5 (+100)
Total: 39.5 – Over: (-110) | Under: (-110)
Game Info: Sunday, January 8th, 2023 | 4:25 p.m. ET | CBS

Chargers Straight-Up Record: 10-6
Chargers Against the Spread Record: 10-5-1

Broncos Straight-Up Record: 4-12
Broncos Against the Spread Record: 7-9

Bet on Chargers-Broncos at SI Sportsbook

Odds and Betting Insights

Whenever there is a significant line move during the week due to an injury or a change at quarterback, I tend to lend to the team getting more points than initially expected. Denver would like to go on a high note after a disastrous season. Jerry Jeudy has six catches or more in his last four starts (8/73/3, 7/76, 6/117, and 7/38). I can’t trust Russell Wilson (12 games with more than one passing touchdown), but the Broncos should move the ball on the ground. I’ll take the Chargers plus the points in this game.

• Denver is 4-1 vs. the spread over the last five games while being the better play when coming in as an underdog (6-3). However, the Broncos are 1-6 when favored and 1-8 at home.
• The game total has been streaky for the Broncos. Four consecutive wins on the over after seeing the under come in the previous eight matchups (11-1 start the season).
• After starting the season with a 4-1 record vs. the spread, the Chargers are 5-4-2 in the betting markets. Over their four-game winning streak, Los Angeles went 3-0-1 against the spread.
• The game total has come in the past five Chargers games.

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