NFL Wild-Card Picks: Justin Herbert Ready To Break Out; Tom Brady’s Last Stand?

Just like that, the NFL playoffs are here, with the wild-card round this weekend. Eighteen grueling weeks of regular-season football have come and gone with 14 teams left standing in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy. But you’ll have to forgive us if we’re not super amped for the on-field product that will be coming […]

The post NFL Wild-Card Picks: Justin Herbert Ready To Break Out; Tom Brady’s Last Stand? appeared first on NESN.com.

Just like that, the NFL playoffs are here, with the wild-card round this weekend.

Eighteen grueling weeks of regular-season football have come and gone with 14 teams left standing in the chase for the Lombardi Trophy.

But you’ll have to forgive us if we’re not super amped for the on-field product that will be coming our way this weekend with games spanning Saturday, Sunday and Monday.

This will be the third rendition of the NFL’s “super” wild-card weekend since expanding the playoff field to include seven teams in each conference and eliminating one of two first-round byes. That change, while further lining pockets at the league office and owner suites across the league, has done little to enhance the on-field product. If anything, it has made it worse. There have been 12 wild-card games under the new format, with an average margin of victory nearing 13 points. Last season, it was especially ugly with the betting favorites winning and covering five of six games — by an average of 17 points per game.

But that’s probably not going to stop anyone from sitting in front of the TV all weekend, and it’s sure not going to stop bettors from getting some action across all three days. NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are no different, and the duo was more than willing to dive into the weekend slate on this week’s episode of “The Spread,” NESN’s football picks podcast, where they gave their best bets for the weekend.

Listen to that below.

And before they get into their official picks for the weekend, here’s how they fared in a very successful Week 18.

Here are their full against-the-spread picks for NFL wild-card weekend based on consensus betting lines from the NESNBets live odds page.

SATURDAY, JAN. 14

Seattle Seahawks at (-9.5) San Francisco 49ers, 4:30 p.m. ET
Mike: 49ers. San Fran is a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and the Seahawks needed help to get in. The new playoff format is going to open up the chance for a bunch of blowouts, as we saw last year, and this is one of them. The Seahawks’ best chance to compete is a big game from Ken Walker that opens the passing game for Geno Smith, but the Niners’ No. 2 rush defense by DVOA makes it hard to see that happening. On the other side of the ball, pick your poison. It could be another big game for George Kittle, who had four catches for 93 yards and two touchdowns in his only game versus a Seattle team that allowed the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this season.
Ricky: 49ers. It’s probably time we start giving Brock Purdy a little more credit for what he’s been able to accomplish as San Francisco’s starting quarterback since Jimmy Garoppolo went down (after Trey Lance went down). Purdy has multiple touchdown passes in six straight games while, more importantly, limiting mistakes and getting the ball into the hands of the 49ers’ playmakers. The Niners averaged 33.5 points per game in that stretch while ranking third in EPA/play. Expect Seattle to fall behind early, at which point San Francisco’s opportunistic defense will be able to tee off.

(-2.5) Los Angeles Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Chargers. Credit to the Jags, who won their way in but did so against an uninspiring run of opponents down the stretch. This Chargers team represents a step up in competition, especially at quarterback with Justin Herbert. The Jags won the first meeting, but Herbert was very banged up and is now healthy. It looks like he’ll have Mike Williams at his disposal, and the Chargers offense looked downright dynamic in the rare instances Williams and Keenan Allen were on the field. LA’s biggest advantage might come with its Joey Bosa-Khalil Mack pass-rush duo. Trevor Lawrence had a 62.7 passer rating under pressure, and only Matt Ryan had a higher turnover-worthy pass percentage.
Ricky: Chargers. Fully expected to lean Jags, as the Bolts are traveling across the country after playing in the high altitude of Denver in Week 18. Jacksonville also has an extra day of rest, having played this past Saturday while Los Angeles played Sunday. But a deeper dive reveals we might be sleeping on the Chargers, who possess one of the NFL’s most important recipes for success: They can throw the ball and defend the pass. The Chargers, who rank fifth in pass defense DVOA since their Week 8 bye, are a very dangerous second-tier team ahead of the playoffs, as they’re finally getting healthy and making good on their lofty preseason expectations. Plus, this is a bad matchup for the Jaguars, who allowed the second-most receptions and receiving yards to running backs ahead of facing Austin Ekeler, the NFL’s most prolific pass-catching running back.

SUNDAY, JAN. 15

Miami Dolphins at (-13) Buffalo Bills, 1:05 p.m.
Mike: Bills. Here I am, laying the points with the biggest favorite in wild-card round history. I think I’d probably chase it up to 17. As I declared on “The Spread” this week, I’m done chasing the Dolphins thing. Mike McDaniel is a good coach, but he’s not a miracle-worker. Without Tua Tagovailoa to worry about, Buffalo should able to build a defensive game plan to keep everything in front of them and limit the potential damage from Dolphins game-wreckers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. Miami having the 25th- and 26th-ranked pass defense by DVOA and EPA, respectively, feels like it plays right into what Josh Allen and the Bills want to do, too.
Ricky: Bills. I want to pick the Dolphins. I really do. Because it’s entirely possible the emotions of the last two weeks finally catch up with the Bills, leading to a sluggish start that then makes this inflated number difficult to cover. But how is Miami going to consistently move the football with Skylar Thompson under center? The Bills are no strangers to winning big, and this could play out similar to last season’s wild-card round, when Buffalo pounded an overmatched New England Patriots team (led by a rookie quarterback) by 30 points.

New York Giants at (-3) Minnesota Vikings, 4:40 p.m.
Mike: Vikings. People, including myself, like to make a big deal out of the Vikings being frauds this season — and they largely were. But the Giants also have whiffs of fraud. After starting the season 6-1, they went 3-5-1 down the stretch, beating Houston, Washington and Indianapolis (31st, 28th and 32nd DVOA, respectively). The only playoff teams they beat the entire season were Baltimore and Jacksonville. As far as the actual game, expect Kirk Cousins to feast. No one blitzes more than the Giants, as we saw in Week 16 when New York brought the extra man on 27 of Cousins’ dropbacks. He completed 15 of 24 passes for 171 yards and a pair of touchdowns for good measure. Maybe Wink Martindale changes up the defensive game plan, but we’ve got 18 weeks of evidence to the contrary at this point. Yes, the Giants torched the Vikings in that game, too, but only having to lay the field goal, I’ll take the team with the better high-end talent here.
Ricky: Giants. I’m not sure the Giants necessarily need to switch up their defensive game plan, as the Vikings are down a couple of starters along their offensive line and Cousins overall wasn’t great against the blitz this season, ranking 27th on PFF’s grades among 33 quarterbacks with at least 75 blitzed dropbacks. Both teams have been playing close games all season, and I suspect this will be no different, even if Minnesota ultimately prevails (likely because Justin Jefferson did something crazy). Don’t sleep on Daniel Jones’ scrambling ability in this matchup, either, as the Giants look to compensate for their lack of offensive weapons.

Baltimore Ravens at (-8.5) Cincinnati Bengals, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Ravens. There are plenty of Seahawks-49ers and Dolphins-Bills vibes to this game, especially the latter with Baltimore likely having to start third-string quarterback Anthony Brown. The difference, though, is the Ravens have a borderline-elite defense. Baltimore has the NFL’s second-best scoring defense since trading for Roquan Smith. Last week’s relatively meaningless 11-point loss to these Bengals was Baltimore’s biggest of the season. It’s going to be hard for them to score points, but the Ravens defense can muck this up and keep it within the number, especially now that the Bengals are dealing with a key injury on the offensive line (guard Alex Cappa) as well as Tee Higgins’ hip pointer issue.
Ricky: Ravens. Baltimore is 17-3-2 ATS as an underdog since 2018, an 85% cover rate that’s by far the best in the NFL. Obviously, this is a different set of circumstances due to the quarterback uncertainty facing the Ravens, but John Harbaugh typically has his team ready to play. And this bet mostly is on that being the case again this week, despite the mismatch created by Lamar Jackson’s expected absence. One could argue the Ravens have the advantage in the trenches, on both sides of the ball, and that formula oftentimes travels and plays up in the postseason.

MONDAY, JAN. 16

(-2.5) Dallas Cowboys at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 8:15 p.m.
Mike: Bucs. We try to sound smart or at least make it seem like we know what we’re talking about when making picks. And everything points to Dallas being the far better team here. But on what’s basically a hunch, give me the Bucs, and more importantly, give me Tom Brady. Brady getting points at home during the playoffs is just too much to pass up.
Ricky: Cowboys. Dallas is not playing its best football right now — offensively or defensively. And yeah, refusing points with Brady at home — he’s never been a home underdog in his playoff career — against a team known for choking in the postseason feels a bit reckless. But the Bucs’ offense has been uninspiring all season, and the Cowboys’ pass rush (third in pressure rate) has the ability to make Brady uncomfortable in the pocket. For whatever it’s worth, Tampa Bay was 4-12-1 ATS during the regular season, the worst cover percentage by any team to make the playoffs since the 1974 Miami Dolphins, per ESPN.com.

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