‘Mindboggling’: Will Monday’s big snow tally break a 1952 record in the Sierra Nevada?

California water officials were set to trek up to Echo Summit south of Lake Tahoe on Monday for a highly anticipated annual snowpack measurement — and this year, it could be like a scene out of the 1975 movie “Jaws.”

They’ll — probably — need a bigger ruler.

The results could topple a record set more than half century ago.

A colossal pounding of snowfall this winter in the Sierra Nevada has produced incredible precipitation numbers for the region, wiped away drought conditions across most of the state and drawn out the ski season until the summertime for some Tahoe resorts. The nonstop slashing of storms has also wrought destruction in some parts of the Bay Area, where high winds and heavy rain have toppled trees and caused hundreds of millions of dollars in damage.

But for those keeping a close eye on the white fluffy stuff coming down from the sky this winter — the state says snowpack is at 236% of normal for this time of year — the weather has been nothing short of a miracle.

“Absolutely mind-boggling,” is how Maddie Condon, a spokesperson for Palisades Tahoe, describes this year’s gargantuan snow levels.

If state officials on Monday measure enough snow to bring the snowpack to 237% of normal, it would tie this snow season with a record going back to 1952.

And a mild storm set to hit the region starting Sunday and lasting until Monday could put the 2022-23 season at the top of the scoreboard.

Officials with the National Weather Service said higher-elevation areas in the Sierra could get up to 10 more inches of snowfall — while lower-lying spots could get a couple of inches. The system could jam up traffic on I-80 and Highway 50 leading to Tahoe, officials warned.

California’s Department of Water Resources (DWR) uses the crucial April 3 measurement to determine how much water it will get for the spring and summer. The state typically relies on the melted snow for about one-third of its water supply.

Sunday’s storm may be one of the few remaining chances for any considerable snow in the near future.

“Our models are indicating a fairly strong warming trend,” said Zach Tolby with the NWS station in Reno. “We could see a little system going forward. But there are no indications of any big storms. We’re most likely looking at pretty high chances for warming into this coming weekend.”

For the area’s ski resorts, the plethora of snow is pushing their seasons out months longer than normal.

Palisades Tahoe in Olympic Valley just announced it will be open until Independence Day — and has received an “absolutely insane” 692 inches of snow this year, according to officials at the resort. That’s nearly 25 feet above its yearly average — and slightly more than a foot away from its highest-ever snowpack recorded this century at 707 inches during the 2016-17 season.

Other nearby resorts, like Sierra at Tahoe in Twin Bridges, will stay open until at least mid-April. The slopes there have racked up a whopping 676 inches, still 7 feet less than its current record in the 2010-11 season of 763 inches. Nonetheless, officials there have seen a swell of skiers heading to the mountains.

“People are continuing to show up,” said Katie Hunter, a spokesperson for Sierra at Tahoe, who added that the usual slowdown in April isn’t happening this year.

But for some weather experts, Monday’s measurement only tells one side of the snow story this year.

While the precipitation numbers have been impressive, other data point to a snow season that may not put it at the very top of the charts.

Jan Null, a longtime independent weather official in the Bay Area, explained that the way a storm hits the Sierra Nevada can result in similar precipitation amounts but produce varying levels of snow.

“If an inch of liquid precipitation comes in during a warm system, that may only be 10 inches of snow,” said Null. “But if it is a cold storm, that same inch can end up being 16 inches of snow.” That’s because warm storms produce the much-hated “Sierra Cement,” which builds on the surface level differently than the fluffier powder a cold storm expels.

With that in mind, Null said that wet precipitation data from the Sierra Nevada put the 2022-23 season much lower compared with several other seasons in the past century.

In the northern Sierra, this season has seen 61.19 inches of wet precipitation between last July and this March. That clocks it at 15th place, well behind the 2016-17 year, which had 83.5 inches. In the central Sierra, the region this year has experienced 62.02 inches, which puts it in third place behind a 1982-83 record of 71.16. And down in the southern Sierra, this year is at 51.27 inches, second to the 1982-83 season of 53.27.

Overall, when it comes to the snowmelt providing crucial water resources for the state, California officials say they’ll be able to deliver more than expected.

On Thursday, DWR officials said they will be able to provide 75% of requested water supplies throughout the state — a major jump from the 35% percent the agency was expecting in February. The increase pencils out to an additional 1.7 million acre-feet of water for 29 public water agencies.

But the influx of water could also produce major flooding, prompting Gov. Gavin Newsom on Friday to announce an emergency response surrounding intense snowmelt entering Tulare Lake Basin in the southern end of the San Joaquin Valley.

“The best scenario right now is if we have a cool spring,” said Newsha Ajami, a water expert at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. “And not too hot of a summer. Then the snow can melt slowly and potentially some can stay. And we can keep some of that snowpack intact.”