UConn blindsided bettors with unlikely but dominant title run
Welcome to the Winner’s Circle, a weekly column by Bet For The Win senior writer Prince J. Grimes.
Connecticut locked up the men’s NCAA basketball title Monday, completing one of the most dominant tournament runs of all-time.
The Huskies beat San Diego State by 17 points for their sixth straight double-digit win and fifth national championship in program history. And almost no one outside of their own locker room seen it coming.
UConn opened the season with title odds of 60-1 or longer across different sportsbooks, which are coincidentally the longest odds a team has overcome to win a title since UConn won at 70-1 in 2014.
CBB National Champion Opening Odds, Since 2013:
2023: UConn +6600
2022: Kansas +2000
2021: Baylor +800
2019: Virginia +1800
2018: Villanova +1200
2017: UNC +2400
2016: Villanova +2000
2015: Duke +1000
2014: UConn +7000
2013: Louisville +800 pic.twitter.com/no4KXhL0AE— BetMGM (@BetMGM) April 4, 2023
Those odds made it tough to see the Huskies finishing with a top-25 ranking, let alone making a deep run in March. If things broke the right way, the long number would have made for an awesome payout, but hardly anybody bit.
At BetMGM, less than a single percent of preseason championship tickets were on UConn, and even less of the handle was bet on the Huskies.
At the beginning of the season, UConn had 0.3% of tickets and 0.2% of handle @BetMGM to win the title
(h/t @johnewing) pic.twitter.com/9FKxp4HnEz
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) April 4, 2023
Bettors did eventually wise up. UConn ended up being the second-most ticketed team to win the NCAA tournament at 7.6%, only trailing Alabama at 9.1%. But that was almost assuredly a cumulative number throughout the tournament as bettors saw the carnage UConn was leaving in its wake.
The Huskies went 6-0 against the spread in the tournament, winning each game by an average of 20 points.
Most bet (tickets) teams to win NCAA Tournament at @BetMGM
Alabama 9.1%
UConn 7.6%
Texas 6.5%
Kansas 6.4%
Houston 5.9%
Miami 5.4%
UCLA 5.3%
Gonzaga 5.0%
Purdue 4.4%
FAU 3.9%
Duke 3.5%
San Diego State 3.5%— John Ewing (@johnewing) April 4, 2023
So what does that mean for trying to predict next year’s champion? Not a thing — except maybe don’t bet on UConn to do it again.
Aside from the tall task of trying to become the first repeat champion since Florida in 2007, the Huskies’ odds for the 2024 title are simply too good. They currently sit at +1400 at DraftKings, which is third behind Duke and Kentucky and probably too good for a team that apparently only wants to win as a massive underdog.
It’s time to find a new team to doubt.