SF Giants minor-league report: Outlooks for top 10 prospects entering 2023, plus 5 more names to know
What does 2023 hold in store for Kyle Harrison, Marco Luciano, Casey Schmitt and the rest of the San Francisco Giants' top prospects?
Every spring, the Giants hand out an award to the player who performs the best in his first major-league camp. It’s named in honor of former trainer Barney Nugent and carries significance because it’s voted on by the players and training staff. This year, the honor went to Casey Schmitt, but in an encouraging sign for the state of the farm system, there was any number of strong candidates.
Schmitt, known for his defensive prowess, also wowed with the bat and made an impression with his quirky personality (he gave an interview to one reporter sprawled in a laundry basket). Rule 5 pick Blake Sabol, who started in left field at Yankee Stadium on Opening Day, opened more eyes than anybody. Young right-hander Keaton Winn put on a strong showing, while lefty Kyle Harrison remained poised despite taking some lumps.
It was even the first big-league camp for 26-year-old third baseman David Villar, something he felt he had to remind reporters of, probably because his 10 home runs since he was called up last Sept. 2 are tied with Pete Alonso and Kyle Schwarber for the most in the National League.
“I think people are going to be pleasantly surprised by a lot of our young players over the next 12-24 months,” farm director Kyle Haines said in an interview at the conclusion of spring training. “I think slowly we’ll be able to trickle pieces in, just as we had in the 12-24 months in the past.
“Two years ago, who thought we’d be calling Logan Webb an ace, or David Villar a third baseman, or Camilo Doval an All-Star caliber closer? I think we can slowly trickle in more, whether that’s Casey and Bryce (Johnson) and (Sean) Hjelle, or whether it’s other players, we’ll see, but I think we’re in a good position to trickle more pieces in to help the major-league team.”
With Triple-A Sacramento’s season already underway and the rest of the affiliates preparing for Opening Day this week, we’ve compiled the 2023 outlooks for the Giants’ most promising prospects, with a composite of rankings from Baseball America, MLB Pipeline, Giants prospect expert Roger Munter, The Athletic’s Keith Law and ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel.
1. Kyle Harrison, LHP
Age: 21
2022 stats (A+/AA): 25 games (25 starts), 4-3, 2.71 ERA, 113 IP, 186 K, 49 BB, .196 AVG
2023 outlook: Making his first Triple-A start Tuesday night in Sacramento, see him at Sutter Health Park while you can because the De La Salle (Concord) alum likely won’t be there all season. Even with the starting pitching depth on the major-league roster, Giants brass from Farhan Zaidi on down have indicated Harrison, rated the top left-handed pitching prospect in baseball, could be in San Francisco in short order.
In his first big-league camp this spring, Harrison made three appearances and allowed eight runs in Cactus League action (a 19.64 ERA).
“I think if anything it maybe just shook his nerves a little bit, being able to stand on the mound, stare down hitters that he’s normally seeing on TV,” Haines said. “I think the biggest growth opportunity was just him shaking the initial exposure to the major-league side without being overexposed.”
#SFGiants top prospect Kyle Harrison just finished up his first live BP of big league camp. (Almost) every pitch of it here: pic.twitter.com/J2oWdMRPmz
— Evan Webeck (@EvanWebeck) February 17, 2023
ETA: 2023
2. Marco Luciano, SS
Age: 21
2022 stats (RK/A+): 227 AB, .269/.350/.467 (.817 OPS), 11 HR, 26 BB, 58 K
2023 outlook: A back injury robbed Luciano of half his 2022 season, after the pandemic sapped him of the entire 2020 season, too. But Luciano arrived in camp looking extra muscular and with a mindset that earned praise from manager Gabe Kapler. Because of the back, which flared up again in winter ball, Luciano was held out of game action until late in spring and won’t report immediately to an affiliate. When he is ready to play nine innings, not far off, Luciano will head to Double-A, and Zaidi said it’s not out of the question that he reaches the big leagues this year.
Marco Luciano was 2 for 4 with a triple (101mph EV) and a single (111mph) vs the A’s on Saturday pic.twitter.com/QVw8i9zE4o
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) March 27, 2023
ETA: 2024
3. Grant McCray, OF
Age: 22
2022 stats (A/A+): 488 AB, .289/.383/.514 (.897 OPS), 23 HR, 43 SB, 67 BB, 170 K
2023 outlook: After finishing 2022 at High-A Eugene, that is likely where the track athlete-turned-centerfielder will begin this season. The Giants would like to see him fill out his 6-foot-2, 190-pound frame and cut down on his 26% strikeout rate, but the tools are there for him to one day be chasing balls down in Oracle Park’s expansive outfield. Along with 20-year-old shortstop Aeverson Arteaga, featured below, Haines said, “a year from now, it wouldn’t surprise me if we were talking about those guys as one and two in our whole organization.”
Grant McCray was 4 for 4 with a double vs the Rockies on Friday pic.twitter.com/BEehvPUUmI
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) March 26, 2023
ETA: 2025
4. Luis Matos, OF
Age: 21
2022 stats (RK/A+): 376 AB, .215/.280/.356 (.636 OPS), 12 HR, 11 SB, 28 BB, 66 K
2023 outlook: After a difficult year in High-A, the Giants gave Matos an extended look in major-league camp this spring. Kapler said he wanted to see him “at his best” because “I just haven’t seen him at his best live yet.” Upon being reassigned, Kapler said, “We definitely saw some moments of good.” Matos, who was named the Arizona Fall League’s top defender, rose in the prospect rankings on the strength of his defense and bat-to-ball skills, showcased in a breakout 2021 campaign. But just because Matos can make contact with a pitch doesn’t mean the Giants want him swinging at it.
“Sometimes you have to shrink his zone a little bit because he can put so many balls in play,” Kapler said. “It’s just dialing him in on the pitches that he wants to go after. … We really want Luis to think about driving the baseball.”
ETA: 2024
5. Casey Schmitt, 3B/SS
Age: 24
2022 stats (A+/AA/AAA): 468 AB, .293/.365/.489 (.854 OPS), 21 HR, 3 SB, 48 BB, 120 K
2023 outlook: The plan is for Schmitt to split his time almost evenly between third base and shortstop at Triple-A Sacramento, where he’s already filled out a defensive highlight reel through the first three games of the season. If he continues to hit at Triple-A like he did at Double-A last season, expect Schmitt to be first in line for a call-up when and if a need arises in the infield.
We dare you to find a smoother infielder than Casey pic.twitter.com/AqT0oBLNZL
— Sacramento River Cats (@RiverCats) April 2, 2023
Casey Schmitt made an excellent defensive play.
In other news: water is wet #JoinTheFun pic.twitter.com/Yui1BLyeSs
— Sacramento River Cats (@RiverCats) April 2, 2023
Raise you hand if you want another Casey Schmitt defensive gem
#JoinTheFun pic.twitter.com/yQQOMdQM09
— Sacramento River Cats (@RiverCats) April 2, 2023
ETA: 2023
6. Aeverson Arteaga, SS
Age: 20
2022 stats (A): 503 AB, .270/.345/.431 (.776 OPS), 14 HR, 11 SB, 49 BB, 155 K
2023 outlook: Highlighted by Haines earlier, Arteaga is the youngest name on this list (and thus, furthest away from the majors) but, like Schmitt, could carve a path to the majors with his defense alone. “He’s just got good range, good hands, a good throwing arm,” Haines said. “He’s just a really good blend of all the things you’re looking for.” For him to take the leap Haines believes is possible, the Giants will want to see him cut down on his strikeout rate while repeating the offensive success against higher-level pitching in High-A Eugene.
ETA: 2026
7. Vaun Brown, OF
Age: 24
2022 stats (A/A+/AA): 387 AB, .346/.437/.623 (1.060 OPS), 23 HR, 44 SB, 47 BB, 119 K
2023 outlook: Two years older than his competition in 2022, Brown “looked like the Mike Trout of A-ball last year,” Haines said. Obsessive about his diet and gym routine, Brown also bears a striking resemblance to the Giants’ manager. Whether or not there’s another fitness guru in the San Francisco dugout in the next season or two will depend on how Brown adjusts to upper-level competition the same age as him, starting at Double-A Richmond.
“It’s not like he is some ringer we put in there,” Haines said. “Age-wise he was older, but experience-wise he was equal. He came from a small school (Florida Southern), he missed the COVID year. There was a lot of adjustment for him too.”
ETA: 2024
8. Carson Whisenhunt, LHP
Age: 22
2022 stats (RK/A): 4 games (3 starts), 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 7.2 IP, 7 K, 1 BB, .207 AVG
2023 outlook: The 66th overall pick in 2022, the Giants believe Whisenhunt’s changeup is already a major-league quality pitch. With only one full season under his belt at East Carolina (he missed the 2020 COVID season and was suspended for a performance-enhancing drug in 2022), Whisenhunt will report to Low-A San Jose to refine the rest of his arsenal. But with a left arm more polished than most, “Carson has all the makings of being a guy who plays at multiple levels this year,” Haines said.
Carson Whisenhunt struck out 2 in his single inning of work Tuesday vs the A’s pic.twitter.com/bLQ455MguE
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) March 23, 2023
ETA: 2025
9. Mason Black, RHP
Age: 23
2022 stats (A/A+): 24 games (24 starts), 6-4, 3.21 ERA, 112 IP, 136 K, 28 BB, .227 AVG
2023 outlook: Another prospect with a major-league-ready pitch — his slider — Black will headline Double-A Richmond’s rotation after a strong first professional season split between Single-A San Jose and High-A Eugene. Facing upper-level hitters for the first time, “it’s a big year for him to see the next step in his growth,” Haines said. “We just have to get him in good spots in the strike zone more often so that way he’s got more room for air against better hitters. If you make 10 mistakes in an A-ball game, maybe one of them gets hurt. If you make 10 in the big leagues, probably five or six are going to get hurt.”
Mason Black fanned 3 over his two innings of work, topping at 96mph, vs the Cubs on Monday pic.twitter.com/76laTe7IbV
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) March 22, 2023
ETA: 2025
T-10. Reggie Crawford, LHP/1B
Age: 22
2022 stats: n/a (injured)
2023 outlook: Coming up on 18 months since his October 2021 elbow reconstruction, the Giants’ 2022 first-round pick is still a ways off from reporting to an affiliate, due in part to a nasty case of mononucleosis that knocked him off his rehab schedule. Crawford has progressed to full-go bullpens, but must still face live hitters, then get into some low-level games in Arizona, before making his way to a full-season affiliate. Still intending to attempt a two-way career, Crawford has backed off the hitting portion as he finishes rehabbing his arm.
ETA: 2026
T-10. Patrick Bailey, C
Age: 23
2022 stats (A+): 267 AB, .225/.342/.419 (.761 OPS), 12 HR, 1 SB, 49 BB, 72 K
2023 outlook: A big season from Bailey would provide an easy solution to the Giants’ catching woes at the major-league level. Drafted 13th overall in 2020, Bailey will begin the season at Double-A Richmond, but Zaidi said, “We’d love to see him in Sacramento as quickly as he can prove he’s ready.” Named the Rawlings minor-league Gold Glove winner at catcher in 2022, Bailey’s offensive profile as a switch-hitter is a work in progress. Beneath the hood of his .761 OPS in 2022 was a 400-point split between his left-handed swing (.851) and his at-bats from the right side (.452).
Patrick Bailey was 1 for 3 with a home run (104mph EV) vs the Brewers on Thursday pic.twitter.com/GpTe4wm6xq
— SFGProspects (@SFGProspects) April 2, 2023
ETA: 2024
… Plus 5 more names to know
Rayner Arias, OF: One of the most coveted players from the 2023 international class, still a month away from his 17th birthday, will begin his promising pro career in the Dominican Summer League.
Hayden Birdsong, RHP: One of a group of four pitchers in the 2022 draft class the Giants are high on, along with Will Kempner, Spencer Miles and Liam Simon.
R.J. Dabovich, RHP: Could bring his high-octane fastball and big breaking curve to San Francisco’s bullpen this year, if he learns how to control them.
Ryan Reckley, SS: Giants’ top signing from the 2022 international class, with a $2.2 million bonus out of the Bahamas, drew rave reviews from staff at Papago Park this spring after missing much of his first season to injury.
Keaton Winn, RHP: Touched triple-digits with his fastball and dropped in some devastating splitters during an impressive debut at big-league camp.