Emmy Experts Typing: Could ‘Beef’ break into the supporting categories?

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, as viewers consume Netflix’s “Beef,” we we go over the comedy races.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and I’m happy to ask and answer our first question: Where’s the “Beef”? On Netflix! This week, the streaming giant of a thousand shows and movies launched one of its better efforts in a bit: “Beef,” a dark comedy that’s not really funny but also funnier than many ostensible comedy shows — something we tried to inventory this week already with our voices. We’re both fans of this one, a character study of two broken people that feels like an episode of “Curb Your Enthusiasm” but make it “Weeds”? Whatever the comps, “Beef” feels like it could be a significant contender: No offense to “Dead to Me” or “Wednesday,” but it feels like this is the biggest comedy priority for Netflix this season and has two very well-liked actors making a play for their first acting Emmy nominations. We both have Steven Yeun making the cut in Best Comedy Actor and why not? That category has had five locks for months already in Jason Sudeikis, Jeremy Allen White, Bill Hader and the Martins (Short and Steve). The last spot could go to Donald Glover for “Atlanta” or Jason Segel for my beloved “Shrinking,” but as you said before, “Emmy nominee Steven Yeun” has a nice ring to it. If he were nominated, I feel like it would be comparable to the Brian Tyree Henry Oscar nomination for “Causeway.” The industry has loved Henry for a few years and he finally had a film role they were willing to acknowledge with awards recognition. For Yeun, I think we could see something similar. Ali Wong, however, an Emmy nominee for writing, has the tougher trek. Best Comedy Actress is pretty loaded and I do wonder if she’ll bump up against the dreaded Wendy Byrde problem by playing someone who is flawed and complicated. But she rules on the show and I almost think she’s got the harder part: We see the beef-inciting road rage incident from Danny’s (Yeun) perspective and Amy (Wong) is on her heels in terms of generating audience sympathy from the start. That she’s able to still engender so much empathy for Amy is impressive. For all that typed, however, I still don’t think “Beef” will get into Best Comedy Series — at least not yet. I have “Wednesday” holding down the final spot on account of its great crafts, beautiful crafts. But maybe the TV academy will surprise me and give “Beef” nominations for its directing, editing, score, and music supervision. You know I’ll be rocking the Spotify playlist from “Beef” all summer if only because it feels like the show was created in a lab to appeal to people who went to college in the late ’90s and early 2000s.

joyceeng: The “Beef” playlist will for sure be fighting for airtime with the “Air” playlist for me. All bangers all the time, as my guy Ken W.A. would say. “Beef” should win music supervision for the savvy deployment of Hoobastank‘s iconic smash “The Reason” at the end of the pilot alone — just a hysterical and earnest encapsulation of Amy and Danny’s dynamic: Two deeply dissatisfied, frustrated souls whose beef has made them come alive because they don’t have a, uh, reason to maintain any pretense around each other. A+ work all around. Anyway, I haven’t made any changes yet, but you know I would love to insert the show into series and Wong into actress. If the latter race were like actor, I’d have her in already. Wong is tremendous and tremendously great at portraying passive-aggression and making use of her elastic face in both stillness and all-out rage. The “unlikable woman” voter hang-up would come into play at the winner stage — Laura Linney, Sarah Snook and Lena Headey got nominations for their “cold” characters, just not wins (still TBD in Snook’s case) — so if Wong misses, I don’t necessarily think that would be the reason. The field is packed even without Jean Smart around. I also can see noms for the leads and maybe writing but not series — sort of like when “Friday Night Lights” finally broke through for its fourth season in 2010 — especially if not enough voters have caught on to the series by voting amid the spring torrent of premieres. But let’s shoot for the moon here. Let’s say the show explodes. Can it produce other acting nominations? “Beef” has a trio of supporting actor contenders: Young Mazino as Paul, Danny’s man-child younger brother who unwittingly gets caught up in their feud; David Choe as Isaac, the Cho bros’ convict cousin (who knew you could counterfeit baby formula?) who is your classic scene-stealing supporting character; and Joseph Lee as George, Amy’s well-meaning, dopey hubby who delivers my favorite line about chairs. On the female side, Maria Bello is the biggest name as Jordan, the billionaire who’s about to acquire Amy’s plant boutique, but I’m partial to Ashley Park as Jordan’s busybody sister-in-law and Patti Yasutake as Amy’s judgmental mother-in-law. They’re all long shots at this point, but who do you think could penetrate the stacked supporting lineups?

SEE Experts slugfest: Will ‘Beef’ serve up Emmy nominations?

Christopher Rosen: The “Beef” supporting cast — a true embarrassment of riches (future comedy ensemble winner at the SAG Awards?). It’s hard to pick a favorite, but for my money Choe is just dynamite. He’s the villain, kind of, but he’s also very silly and you don’t necessarily take him seriously until you should. He reminded me of Timothy Olyphant in a personal favorite “The Girl Next Door” or, if you’re old school, Joe Pantoliano in “Risky Business.” Mazino is great too, a true breakout who feels like the real tragic character of the piece. I don’t believe “Beef” needs a second season because the first season ends so well, but if it were to continue, the evolution of Paul would be really compelling and interesting! Maybe Season 2 makes him the actual lead? Supporting actor is packed, however, with numerous past winners and ascendant contenders vying for a slot. This week, “Abbott Elementary” fans were treated to Tyler James Williams’ likely submission, an episode that doubled as a satire of the awards industrial complex. Williams, thanks to his strong winter awards performance, is first in our odds, but not for me: I’ve still got Brett Goldstein in first for “Ted Lasso” and nothing in the first four episodes of “Ted” S3 has disabused me from that pick. What are you thinking in that category? (And I’ll pause here for you to stan for your “Barry” buddies.)

joyceeng: Would you be shocked to hear that I’ve already rewatched the “Barry” screeners? I’ve lamented with multiple people this week about how upsetting it is that Anthony Carrigan will (likely) go Emmy-less for NoHo Hank. I still have Goldstein, who feels like he could Julia Garner his way to a three-peat (and a consecutive one in his case) if no one steps up a robust alternate. TJW can definitely win too, and while his SAG snub is a red flag, SAG-AFTRA and the TV academy are two different bodies with different tastes. After all, the Emmys nominated him last year when few expected him to make the cut (20th place!). Depending on how the rest of the season goes for “Ted” and what the reception is, I can see Goldstein becoming more vulnerable than he is at the moment. As we’ve already discussed, Goldstein could also sort of beat himself — via Harrison Ford, whose rise to fourth place in the odds for “Shrinking” coincides with another “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny” trailer. Meanwhile, the eternally underrated Lisa Ann Walter has also risen (one spot) to seventh, and while she obviously has better tape options than this week’s episode of “Abbott,” if she gets in, I’d very much like her Emmy clip to be Melissa educating Educator of the Year Gregory about how you don’t win awards when you deserve them because you can’t control when people will acknowledge you. The metaness! Where are you on everyone’s favorite neighborhood Italian?

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Figuring out the scattershot limited series categories

Christopher Rosen: What if Melissa is the “Abbott” supporting MVP this season? I could and would make the case. I absolutely stan Walter in this role and I think her place among the nominees is assured. As for Ford, there does seem to be a kind of prevailing take that if he were nominated for “Shrinking” a victory would be all but assured. Again, I’m here for that. Ford is so funny and if it were a numbers game — and assuming the category has multiple “Ted” actors, multiple “Abbott” actors and multiple “Barry” actors — it seems like he’d be able to coast as the sole nominee from his show. (No offense to Michael Urie and Luke Tennie, both of whom I’ve interviewed and both of whom I’d predict if this went up 10 or 11 slots. Alas.) I guess let’s end here: Never tell him the odds, but what would you guess the odds are that Ford actually wins?

joyceeng: Ford is arguably win-competitive and I think it’s kinda good for him that “Shrinking” isn’t a “Ted”-sized hit. It leaves room for discovery now that the season has concluded and most people who’ve seen it, critics and fans alike, have enjoyed it and his performance. If voters are catching up with shows in the coming weeks, as we expect, “Shrinking” could come highly recommended to them from pals and colleagues who’ve already watched it. At the same time, he also feels like someone casuals and/or the general public would reflexively peg as a winner because of his name recognition and stature (“Of course he’s gonna win, he’s Harrison Ford,” that sort of thing) and would be surprised if he didn’t win. But we know the Emmys have no problem going with less established and less famous folks when they’re their faves. I guess if it becomes a race between Ford and Goldstein, the biggest winner is Bill Lawrence?

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?