Why the Texans Aren’t Likely to Reach on a QB With the No. 2 Pick

While C.J. Stroud and others may be enticing, recent history suggests GM Nick Caserio and coach DeMeco Ryans will be patient finding their quarterback of the future.

Draft’s coming, and your questions this week have veered in that direction. So let’s dive into a mailbag full of them …

From Jon Weeks Burner (@joshstanleyekc): Would the Texans take Stroud at No. 2 if Young is gone?

Jon, this is an excellent question—and one that could shape the rest of the top 10. I also think it’s a conversation that the Texans themselves are having now, and one they haven’t come to a final decision on yet. And you might say …

But the Texans have to take one now!

Do they? Let’s look at the history of the guys in charge. General manager Nick Caserio has been in the NFL for 22 seasons. Over that time, over all the drafts he’s been a part of, the highest his team has drafted a quarterback drafted was 62nd. That pick was Jimmy Garoppolo. Davis Mills, who the Texans took 66th two years ago, would be second on that list. Meanwhile, new coach DeMeco Ryans, over six years in San Francisco, saw one quarterback taken higher than that, and the Niners got to three NFC title games with quarterbacks other than Trey Lance.

That’s why I don’t think Caserio and Ryans will reach on a guy they’re not 100% sold on with the second pick (maybe they’d be more open to a dice roll later in the draft). Both guys have seen teams built in other ways, and both have seen teams find quarterbacks in other ways. So if anyone will be open to it, it’d be these two guys.

That said, as we mentioned in the Monday column, the Texans were close to dealing for the first pick, which tells me there’s at least one quarterback that’s truly worth going at the top of the draft. I suspect that quarterback will be gone when they pick, so we’ll see if they think there are two of them in this year’s class.

From Lucas Bolden (@LucasBolden1): Is Bryce Young now your favorite to go No. 1 to Carolina?

Yes, Lucas. Check out that Monday column for my reasons why.

From Jewish enthusiast of psychotherapy (@azaryajason4): What would you do if you were Denver? #AskingBreer

Great question, Jason. The Broncos are picking 67th, 68th, 108th, 139th and 195th in the draft, and the interesting thing is that they really don’t have a lot of pressing needs for a team coming off a five-win season. So the first thing I’d do would be … to keep listening to the market on their young receivers. I think they have four guys—Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and KJ Hamler—that are marketable, and give them a nice surplus at the position.

So if I’m Denver, if I can get a top-50 pick as part of a package for one of those guys, I think hard about it, especially since Sean Payton’s always been able to maximize whatever he has at the skill positions. Then, with that pick and the two in the 60s, I would look at finding a pass rusher first, then at a deep tight end class and potential depth pieces for the secondary.

Which underscores part of what Payton saw in taking the Denver job, as I see it. If he can get Russell Wilson turned around, the rest of the roster isn’t far away.

From Jp (@Jp11238156): After gathering some intel around the league and your sources, what position and who are the Giants targeting in the first round?

JP, it’s been documented that they’ve looked at the receiver group. GM Joe Schoen and coach Brian Daboll had dinner with Ohio State’s Jaxon Smith-Njigba and TCU’s Quentin Johnston the night before their respective pro days. That doesn’t mean they’re going to take one or the other at 25 (they may not be on the board then). But that the GM and head coach are allotting their time to them is meaningful. As is the fact that USC’s Jordan Addison is in Jersey today for a 30 visit, after having dinner with the team last month.

The other area where it sure seems like they’re turning over rocks is with pass rushers, with Clemson’s Bryan Bresee and Iowa State’s Will McDonald IV among the first-round edge guys that are taking or have taken visits to East Rutherford.

So what ties those positions together? To me, it’s that those are premium spots, and investment in those areas mirrors the building process that Schoen and Daboll were a part of in Buffalo, where big money is sunk into the guys that play big money positions. Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Dion Dawkins, Von Miller and Tre’Davious White were prime examples of it with the Bills, and, given Buffalo’s success, it makes sense that the new Giants brass would follow a blueprint that worked like a charm a few hours west.

From Chris (@chrislfgm): Do the Jets have any interest in a run at Hopkins after the Ravens/OBJ deal?

Chris, I’d say yes, conditionally. That is, I think the Jets are going to do everything they can to go all in around Aaron Rodgers the way, say, the Buccaneers went all in around Tom Brady over the past three years, but they’ll try and do it with some intelligent restraint, like Tampa did. The Odell Beckham Jr. case is a good one with which to illustrate that. The Jets were absolutely in on OBJ. They just weren’t in on him at $15 million for a single year.

DeAndre Hopkins is due $15.09 million in cash this year, and $19.45 million in cash next year. He’s five months older than Beckham and he, like Beckham, has a lot of miles on his legs, a significant injury history and it’s been a few years since he played a full season. So I get why they’d balk at paying Beckham $15 million for a year, and that’s exactly where Hopkins’s price tag is for 2022.

That said … at some point, if you get to a suitable price point, and if you’re pursuing a guy who can draw coverage open for Garrett Wilson, Allen Lazard, Corey Davis, Breece Hall and the rest of them, then it’s worth taking the swing. So if the Jets can get Hopkins to work with them on the money, I could certainly see this happening.

(My one reservation would be that, typically, teams have felt like you have to be fast around Hopkins, because he’s no burner, and I’m not sure the Jets really are that at receiver).

From Kaden (@Kaden_Baker5): Any buzz around Houston, Indy, or anyone else trying to grab the No. 1 pick from Carolina? No way Carolina would do that unless they love Anthony Richardson right?

Kaden, I really think the Panthers see something pretty special in Young, just based on some things I’ve heard. I think they also know even if someone came up to get Stroud, they’d then lose Young to Houston. So my sense would be that even though Carolina GM Scott Fitterer liked the idea of trading back again to pick up some extra capital, the logistics of the situation won’t allow for it.

From Jeremy Friedrichs (@FriedrichsJk): Albert, do you think the NFL will ever make a single-team streaming option available for people watching on TV? The Sunday Ticket prices seem a little crazy.

Jeremy, I think that’s coming, yes. Just be patient. My guess would be that this will be a little of a one-step-at-a-time process, particularly with the technical issue DirecTV had with its Sunday Ticket customers the past couple years. So maybe they’ll spend this year getting the broader Ticket package right with YouTube, then build off that in future years.

From Henry Matthews (@henrymHuss26H): Thought Chiefs and Chris jones were going to get an extension done? Is that no longer happening?

Henry, I certainly wouldn’t say it’s no longer happening—I think this negotiation, like a lot of them, is probably back-burnered until after the draft. I could still see the Chiefs adding a veteran receiver over the next couple weeks, and there could be an extra need or two to be addressed coming out of the draft, and all of that can affect how you’d structure a big deal like Jones’s promises to be.

Jones is in a really good spot. The post-Frank Clark Chiefs need him. He’s still just 28 years old. He’s better than defensive tackles that have gotten between $20 million and $25 million this offseason. There’s the Aaron Donald deal out there to shoot for, too. So Jones, who was smart to limit his deal in 2020 to four years, will get another bite at the apple.

From Mike (@MikeHM3254): Most likely outcome for the Bears with the No. 9 pick on draft night?

Mike, I think one thing that appealed to GM Ryan Poles about going down to the ninth pick, on top of all the capital he’d get to slide back eight spots, was that there’d probably be a top offensive lineman available for him there. And that’s how it looks now. None of the tackles are expected to go in the top four, and the four directly in front of Chicago all have premier tackles (and three of the four, with Vegas the exception, have two really good ones).

That means Poles will likely have some combination of Northwestern’s Peter Skoronski, Ohio State’s Paris Johnson Jr., Georgia’s Broderick Jones and Tennessee’s Darnell Wright sitting there for him, as good values at the edge of the top 10. So I think this is all setting up for the Bears to get Justin Fields another bodyguard (even if Smith-Njigba might be a little enticing).

From Darren Boyd (@DarrenBoyd13): Do you think the Dolphins will trade down from 51? They only have four draft picks.

Darren, yes. And there’s a reason for it beyond just that Miami only has picks 51, 84, 197 and 238 right now.

If you look at the roster, you see that the big building blocks are there. The Dolphins have receivers (Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle), a left tackle (Terron Armstead), edge rushers (Bradley Chubb, Jaelan Phillips) and corners (Jalen Ramsey, Xavien Howard) plus a quarterback (Tua Tagovailoa) they really like. All of which means, at this point, GM Chris Grier is looking for complimentary pieces rather than cornerstones.

So it makes sense, then, to build up some volume to find guys who can give you depth.

From Telescope (@Kiggity258): Will the Patriots add weapons for Mac Jones in the draft? Or are the Patriots adding weapons and a possible Mac replacement?

Telescope, I wouldn’t rule out a Day 3 quarterback for the Patriots—someone like UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson or Fresno State’s Jake Haener would make some sense. But I don’t think they’ll take that swing Thursday night or Friday night, and despite the way 2022 went, I do think New England’s gonna give Jones a shot to reestablish himself in Foxboro with Bill O’Brien now pulling the strings on offense.

As for weapons, the Patriots have three top-100 picks (14, 46, 76), and I think they’ll use one of those three on a receiver, tight end or back. I’d also say that, given their tackle situation, if there’s one they like there at 14, it’d be hard for New England not to just take him. And if the 14th pick is a tackle, and we’re talking about a second- or third-rounder, based on the depth of the class, I’d see tight end or running back potentially being of better value for the Patriots on the second night of the draft.

To that end, Notre Dame’s Michael Mayer’s a two-way tight end that might make sense, if he’s there at 46, as a guy to grab, with Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki on expiring deals.

From Shedrick Carter (@shedrickcarter2): In your article, you gave some insight on the top seven teams. What are you hearing at 8 with Atlanta?

Shedrick, the Falcons are doing all their homework on the quarterbacks. That said, if I had to bet on something right now, it’d be on coach Arthur Smith and GM Terry Fontenot landing another foundation piece for their defense. With the team onboarding Jeff Okudah to a corner group that already has a stud in A.J. Terrell, that position might not be the biggest need, but if Will Anderson Jr. or Tyree Wilson are gone, it could be the best value for Atlanta if Illinois’s Devon Witherspoon, Oregon’s Christian Gonzalez or both are available at No. 8.

There’s also a good chance that Georgia star Jalen Carter, the most talented player in the draft, is available to Atlanta. Can the Falcons afford to take him, and all the associated risk, being just down the road from Athens, where his spotty reputation was cultivated? It’s an interesting question and one, for sure, that Smith and Fontenot have spent considerable time contemplating over the past few months.

From Joey Bag of Donuts (@joeybagovdonuts): What are the odds of Lamar Jackson sitting out the season?

Joey, I wouldn’t rule anything out. But I think he’ll play for the Ravens this year.