Earth Matters: EPA's proposed standards push EVs; bird apocalypse; Colorado River options for cuts

Last year, more than 807,000 electric cars were sold in the United States, 5.8% of the nation’s new car total, compared with 3.2% in 2021. In the first quarter of 2023, that portion hit 7.2%. Despite that encouraging trend, the U.S. has a long way to go and many hurdles to overcome to make the transition from gasoline-powered vehicles to EVs. In Germany, for instance, 33% of new cars sold in 2022 were EVs. It was 23% for the European Union as a whole. A Reuters/Ipsos poll of Americans in March found 34% of those surveyed would consider buying an EV, while 31% said no, with the rest unsure. The partisan split was wide, with 50% of Democrats saying they would consider an EV, while only 26% of Republicans and 27% of independents said they would. 

Transportation is the number one greenhouse gas emitter in the U.S, just ahead of electricity generation, and transforming it is obviously crucial in addressing the climate crisis. President Joe Biden has called for 50% of all vehicles sold by 2030 to be electric. An ambitious goal, given how many are sold now. But not really more ambitious than what legacy automakers are promising. Most say they want EVs to make up 40%-50% of their sales by 2030. The federal target is backed up with many carrots—tax credits to reduce prices for buyers, support for battery development and manufacturing, funding of tens of thousands of charging stations, and other actions to accelerate the ongoing transformation of the automotive sector.

On Wednesday came the sticks. Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Michael Regan unveiled the agency’s long-awaited new emissions standards for passenger cars and light- and medium-duty trucks. The EPA cannot require carmakers to produce a certain number of electric vehicles. But under the Clean Air Act, it can restrict the pollution generated by the total number of cars each maker sells. Companies under the proposed standards would have to report total emissions each year. Those that fail to meet the standard could be fined billions of dollars and otherwise penalized. The announcement opened the door to 60 days of public comments, consideration of which could change the details of the standards. 

The proposed changes cover heat-trapping emissions, toxic pollutants, and soot. Under one scenario the EPA laid out, the new rules could mean 67% of new sedans, crossovers, SUVs, and light trucks would be electric by 2030, well ahead of Biden’s goal. In addition, the agency forecast that around half of new buses and garbage trucks, along with a quarter of long-haul trucks, could be electric by then. The proposed standards in the light vehicle category would take effect in model year 2027. The standards won’t require a particular technology to control emissions. But given their strictness, automakers will be spurred into building more EVs sooner.