ACM Awards mystery: Will Luke Combs repeat for Album of the Year, or will Miranda Lambert extend her record?

The Academy of Country Music Award for Album of the Year in 2023 is a rematch. Luke Combs (“Growin’ Up”) is competing against Miranda Lambert (“Palomino”). The last time they faced off was in 2020, when Combs’s “What You See Is What You Get” overtook Lambert’s “Wildcard” to earn him his first prize in the category. Can he do it again, or will Lambert resume her record-breaking run?

Combs is the favorite to win again, based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users as of this writing. He gets leading odds of 11/2 with support from 17 of the Top 24 Users who got the highest scores predicting last year’s ACM winners and 18 of the All-Star Top 24 who had the best scores when you combine the last two years’ ACM predictions. It helps that “Growin’ Up” is a sizable hit. Not as big as “What You See Is What You Get,” which actually ranks higher on the latest Billboard 200 albums chart despite being three years older. But after almost a year it’s still in the top 60, whereas “Palomino” has fallen off the chart entirely.

Nevertheless, Lambert holds the record for most Album of the Year victories at the ACM Awards. She has prevailed five times, for “Crazy Ex-Girlfriend” (2008), “Revolution” (2010), “Four the Record” (2012), “Platinum” (2015), and “The Weight of These Wings” (2017). Over those 10 years, she never lost when  nominated. So she can never be counted out at these kudos. Indeed, she ranks second in our predictions with 13/2 odds and support from four Top Users and two All-Stars. Lainey Wilson‘s “Bell Bottom Country” also gets 13/2 odds, placing it a close third; Wilson is the most nominated woman at these awards, so watch out. And rounding out the category are Ashley McBryde‘s “Lindeville” with 7/1 odds and Jon Pardi‘s “Mr. Saturday Night” with 15/2 odds.

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