Odds for Who Will Be the Second Player Drafted
Quarterback Will Levis is the odds-on favorite to come off the board at No. 2, but Houston could opt for a defensive player instead.
It seems that the first round of the NFL draft Thursday may well begin with the Texans’ selection at No. 2.
With each passing day, it looks more like a foregone conclusion that the Panthers will land Alabama quarterback Bryce Young with the first overall pick. He’s currently -2000 to go No. 1 at SI Sportsbook. Meanwhile, what Houston will do with the second pick remains something of a mystery.
Conventional wisdom might indicate the Texans, who have an NFL-worst seven wins over the last two seasons, would opt to address their need at quarterback. Less than a month ago, Young was the favorite to go to Houston. Then it was Ohio State’s C.J. Stroud. For a moment last week, it was Will Anderson Jr., viewed by many as the top defensive player and perhaps the best prospect in the class. As of now, though, it’s Kentucky QB Will Levis.
So, who will hear his name called when Houston is on the clock? Let’s see what the betting odds, team needs, player profiles and recent reports say about this pick.
Petre Thomas/USA TODAY Sports
2023 NFL Draft: Odds for the No. 2 Pick
Will Levis -133
Tyree Wilson +250
Will Anderson Jr. +333
C.J. Stroud +350
Anthony Richardson +1600
Bryce Young +1600
Jalen Carter +2000
Levis has gained plenty of steam over the last week, enough to propel him to become the favorite to go No. 2, one of a pair of first-round picks that belong to the Texans (the other being the 12th pick, via the Browns).
The quarterback out of Kentucky had a down year in 2022 as he battled through injuries after he had a breakout season in 2021, his first as a starter after he transferred from Penn State. Levis ranked 13th (and third among signal-callers) in SI’s Top 100 Big Board and fell out of the top half of the first round in a recent mock draft.
If he delivers on his favorite status, he would join a quarterback room that includes incumbent starter Davis Mills and veteran Case Keenum. But despite what the odds may indicate, Levis at No. 2 is no done deal.
SI’s Albert Breer wrote Monday: “A month ago, it appeared to be a fait accompli that a quarterback would go at 2. Not so much anymore. I’ve heard DeMeco Ryans is amenable to the idea of taking a defensive player there.”
That would indicate that Tyree Wilson, edge rusher out of Texas Tech, and Anderson, edge rusher out of Alabama, are both very much in play here as well. Wilson (-120) is a slight favorite over Anderson (-105) to be the first defensive player drafted.
Breer highlighted quarterback, defensive end and wide receiver as Houston’s team needs and outlined a route where the franchise lands its building block on defense second (Wilson or Anderson) and uses the 12th pick to land a quarterback (perhaps Anthony Richardson out of Florida). The Texans also have the draft capital to move up into the top 10 from 12 to find their answer under center.
Lost in all of this is Ohio State’s Stroud, who was once the betting favorite to go first overall and then seemed ripe to land in Houston. He now has the best odds to go No. 3, a pick the Cardinals currently own, which would indicate Arizona, which recently signed quarterback Kyler Murray to a massive extension, will have traded the pick by the time the team is on the clock.
There are a few other options available to the Texans that are at least worth addressing, one of which involves a trade down from the No. 2 slot, even if that means doing business with a division rival.
“We’ll trade with anybody,” general manager Nick Caserio said in an interview last week. That would hypothetically open the door for deals with the Colts, who hold the No. 4 pick, and the Titans, who are slotted in at No. 11.
“Levis has had a rough pre-draft process, but I’ve heard his name linked to the Colts over and over from other teams last week,” Breer wrote of Indianapolis’ possible draft paths. “And I heard he made a very positive impression with the Manning brothers at their passing academy last summer, and, obviously, owner Jim Irsay still listens to Peyton on these things.”
Another path forward would involve punting on quarterback this year altogether. The grass is always greener, but the 2024 class, headlined by USC’s Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams and UNC’s Drake Maye, is held in high regard.
If Carolina goes chalk with Young, Houston is liable to go any number of directions. But based on the state of this roster and Ryans’s background as defensive coordinator in San Francisco, it seems the most likely outcome, should the Texans keep the pick, is that they select one of the top defensive prospects. And Anderson’s pedigree, along with the added value he presents from a betting perspective compared with Wilson, makes him the best bet to be the second pick.
BET: Will Anderson Jr. Drafted No. 2 Overall (+333)
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