NHL Draft Lottery: Will luck be on the San Jose Sharks’ side?

The San Jose Sharks and their fans would quickly – and gladly — forget about one of the most painful seasons in team history if the organization was able to get a bit lucky Monday and win the NHL Draft Lottery.

After finishing the 2022-2023 season with the fourth-worst record in the NHL, the Sharks have a 9.5 percent chance of winning the lottery and earning the right to select center Connor Bedard, the consensus No. 1 player available who is thought to be the league’s next generational-type talent.

The Sharks have never had the No. 1 overall pick in their 32 prior drafts. But winning the lottery and selecting the 17-year-old Bedard, who had a staggering 143 points in 71 regular season games this past season, would certainly provide a needed jolt to a team that has missed the playoffs for four straight years.

“They always kid about great goaltending makes great coaches and great general managers, and that’s true,” said Gord Stellick, a former GM of the Toronto Maple Leafs who co-hosts “NHL Morning Skate” on SiriusXM Radio.

“And in this case, whether it’s Mike Grier or somebody else, there’s going to be one general manager on draft lottery night that is a genius in a matter of seconds.”

Sharks center Nico Sturm played with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar when he won a Stanley Cup with the Colorado Avalanche last season. MacKinnon was the No. 1 overall pick in 2013, winning the Calder Trophy as the league’s top rookie the following year, and Makar, selected fourth overall in 2017, won the Norris Trophy as the NHL’s top defenseman last year.

“They’re special players, they’re the difference-makers and certainly we’re in need of that,” Sturm said. “No question.”

Grier, nearing the end of his first full season as the Sharks’ general manager, wants to implement a plan that puts the team on solid footing for years to come. He considers this past season, when the Sharks finished 22-44-16, one where he started to lay the groundwork by overhauling parts of the roster and increasing the size of the front office.

From Grier’s perspective, winning the lottery wouldn’t necessarily change that plan.

“I think the last thing we want to do here is to be fortunate enough to get a high pick, go out and spend money, then in three years, we’re regretting what we did,” Grier said last month. “So we still have to kind of stick to our plan and be smart about any moves we make and things we do, and kind of keep down the excitement of maybe adding a top young player, trying to do too much and then regret it in a couple of years.”

“I’m sure it would,” provide a lift, Sharks captain Logan Couture said of winning the lottery. “At the same time, whoever we’re drafting is 18 years old, and it’s tough. There’s very few that can jump in and be electric at 18.”

The NHL holds two lotteries to determine the first and second overall selections, and the Sharks also have a 9.5 percent chance of winning the second lottery and earning the No. 2 overall pick. They also have a 0.3 percent chance of landing at No. 3 and a 15.4 percent chance of staying at No. 4.

The NHL’s worst team this past season, the Anaheim Ducks, have a 25.5 percent chance of capturing the No. 1 overall pick, Columbus has a 13.5 percent chance and Chicago has an 11.5 percent chance.

If San Jose does not win the lottery, Grier and company would love to see Bedard wind up outside the Pacific Division, if not the conference. Besides Anaheim, Vancouver, Bedard’s hometown team, has a 3 percent of winning the lottery.

The bad news for the Sharks is that they are more likely to move down in the draft order than up. They have a 44.6 percent chance of dropping to No. 5 and a 20.8 percent chance of falling to sixth overall. That’s because the teams that finished fifth through 11th in the NHL’s overall standings are also eligible to select first overall, and the 12th-place team, Ottawa, is eligible to move up to No. 2. Teams can move up a maximum of 10 spots.

On the plus side, it’s a deep draft.

Center Adam Fantilli, a Canadian who just finished his freshman season at Michigan, is considered the second-best player available and would be the No. 1 pick in most other years. Fantilli, 18, is potentially the only other player in the draft who could step into an NHL lineup right away.

Swedish forward Leo Carlsson and Russian forward Matvei Michkov are considered the next-best players available, followed by Americans Zach Benson and Will Smith. All are projected to be impact players.

Still, some patience might be needed, regardless of where the Sharks land.

“I don’t think people realize it’s tough to just jump right in and dominate like a Connor McDavid in this league,” Couture said. “But we’re going to have a high pick, hopefully, and we’ll see what happens.”