Extending Francisco Álvarez Should Be A Priority
Photo by Sam Greene of The Enquirer
Francisco Álvarez has been everything the Mets expected and then some in 2023, quickly establishing himself as one of the team’s most indispensable players both offensively and defensively. It’s hard not to dream big about his future in the Orange and Blue, which begs the question of how quickly the Mets front office should act in securing him long-term.
New York typically hasn’t handed out pre-arbitration extensions, but Álvarez very well could be an exception. He has thrived under the pressure of lofty expectations as a rookie to the tune of a .263/.327/.505 slash line along with six home runs and 13 RBI. Those numbers are slightly misleading though, as they don’t tell the full story of just how far he’s come in such a short amount of time. After slashing .194/.216/.278 over his first 36 at-bats in April, Álvarez has hit .304/.381/.661 in May and positioned himself among the league’s elite in the process. His 184 wRC+ this month ranks at No. 15 among players with at least 50 plate appearances while his 1.1 fWAR ranks No. 12 with both totals also being tops among all catchers.
Álvarez’s raw talent behind the plate has always been evident, but there were some questions raised before the season about his readiness to catch and call games from a fundamental standpoint on a regular basis. However, it’s that area of the game where he has set him apart from his peers and proven to be an all-around player.
Francis Álvarez is third on the Mets with six home runs.
He’s not getting demoted, folks.
— Metsmerized Online (@Metsmerized) May 25, 2023
According to Baseball Savant, Álvarez sits near the top of the leaderboard in both catchers blocking runs and blocks above average while also exhibiting an above-average pop time. He’s had trouble controlling the run game at times but has more than made up for it with his framing. Álvarez currently ranks No. 4 in both Savant’s and FanGraphs’ primary framing metrics all while sitting in the 93rd percentile for it as a whole, painting a picture of how important he has been defensively.
How Much Could Álvarez Get Paid?
With pre-arbitration extensions becoming exceedingly common across baseball in recent years, let’s try to pin down an approximate value and structure that could work in Álvarez’s case.
To set the stage, he has accrued well under a year of service time and will be in pre-arbitration through the 2026 season. Diamondbacks outfielder and former top prospect Corbin Carroll also had far less than a year of service time when he signed his eight-year, $111 million extension this past March while Reds pitcher Hunter Greene had accrued just over a year of service when he signed his six-year, $53 million extension in April.
While neither situation is a perfect example or indicator of what Álvarez could be in line for should he be extended, it still provides valuable context about how pre-arb players are valued around the league.
However, one player whose situation closely mirrors Álvarez‘s and may hold the keys for what extension could like is Nationals catcher Keibert Ruiz.
Ruiz, with just over a year of service time under his belt, agreed to an eight-year, $50 million extension with Washington in March. The deal bought out at least three potential free agency years from 2028 to 2030 with the chance to make it five after club options were attached to the 2031 and 2032 seasons at $12 million and $14 million, respectively. As is the case with pre-arbitration extensions, the contract sacrifices an earlier chance at free agency for heightened earnings and security throughout the course of pre-arbitration and arbitration.
Perhaps the Mets could look at what transpired with their division rival and its talented young catcher and simply use it as a rough template for an extension with Álvarez. The team could opt to simply wait his situation out and pursue an extension several years down the line instead, but the waiting game could come back to bite them considering the emphasis teams around the league have put on locking up their franchise cornerstones as soon as possible. As a result, the Mets need to do everything in their power to pursue an extension with Álvarez and keep him in New York long-term.
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