Emmy odds update: It’s 3 ‘Succession’ men vs. Bob Odenkirk for Best Drama Actor
One of the most indecisive categories at the Emmys this year is Best Drama Actor, where it will be the final time to award a majority of the projected nominees. There is no question that “Succession” will likely dominate this category, with Kieran Culkin joining Jeremy Strong and Brian Cox to compete for the win as a lead actor. Given the HBO family drama’s impressive final season and the vast support it’s had its last two eligible runs, it is expected that all three will fill up half the category. But which one of them will actually win? Or could the Emmy go to Bob Odenkirk for another farewell series in “Better Call Saul”?
Among Gold Derby’s Emmy odds update, this category is proving to be very divided. As of this writing, the top three in order of winning are Strong, Odenkirk and Culkin, all of whom seem to separate the Expert journalists with six each going for the “Succession” actors and Odenkirk receiving four. However, there doesn’t seem to be much debate between the Editors as Culkin has dominated eight of the 11 votes for the win, while Strong and Odenkirk take one each.
Strong’s first placement and his odds of 4/1 are perhaps due to receiving half of the Top 24 users’ support, while also getting six of the Top 24 All-Star users’ predictions. Strong is a previous Emmy winner for the second season, and has the benefit of playing what is arguably the show’s most empathetic character in Kendall Roy. Viewers who have seen the series finale of “Succession” will no doubt sympathize significantly with the character, especially in the final lasting minutes, which could work in his favor.
But Culkin is right on his tail with 5/1 odds and eight All-Star votes and three of the Top 24 users to go with the Experts and Editors. This season forecasted his character Roman Roy’s massive downfall, specifically in the penultimate episode where Culkin showcases various emotions from pride to breaking down in tears to provoking harm to himself. His standout moments especially in the latter half of the season are grounds for his upgrade to his category from supporting.
Odenkirk is what separates the two with 9/2 odds and the backup of four Top 24 users and five All-Stars who foresee that he will break the longest Emmy losing streak for “Better Call Saul” at 46 nominations with no wins. He has received a nom for every season of AMC legal crime drama for playing Saul Goodman except for the fifth, but he has consistently been showing up in the precursor winter awards with Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations, and won the Critics Choice Award to maintain momentum for the final installment of the series.
But the battle between the “Succession” actors doesn’t stop there; there is one more to add to the trio and that’s Cox, who has been nominated twice before as Logan Roy. His fifth placement odds at 15/2 is due to his early departure in the season’s third episode. Nevertheless, his spirit lingers on the rest of the series and he still gives a powerful performance in the early season, filled with memorable scenes and speeches. He is additionally the patriarch of the family, while having two Experts and one Top 24 user on his side.
With all these partings of shows, there is the other side of the spectrum in the category with a plethora of actors competing for their freshman series. Pedro Pascal for “The Last of Us,” another HBO darling, sits behind Culkin and above Cox at 11/2, with the support of one Editor and one All-Star Top 24 user. The post-apocalyptic series has taken the ratings by storm and Pascal’s large popularity could be hard to resist.
Rounding out the category is Jeff Bridges at 12/1 odds, making his top billing series debut for “The Old Man.” He has been recognized at Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards, and is arguably the biggest name on the roster.
Other contenders for newly minted series include Diego Luna at 33/1, who was mentioned at Golden Globes and Critics Choice, and whose show “Andor” has revitalized the “Star Wars” franchise. Paddy Considine can also ride off the “Game of Thrones” popularity with “House of the Dragon,” as he sits with 37/1 odds. A previous nominee for “Perry Mason,” Matthew Rhys (64/1) could get in a second and final time for the recently canceled series. Finally the Taylor Sheridan universe has two high-profile actors and shows in contention with Harrison Ford for “1923” (75/1), and recent Golden Globe winner Kevin Costner for “Yellowstone” (100/1).
PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12
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