Emmy odds update: It’s ‘Ted Lasso’ vs. ‘Abbott Elementary’ for Best Comedy Series

With less than a month to go before the 2023 Emmy nominations are announced, it’s a race between “Ted Lasso” and “Abbott Elementary” for Best Comedy Series. Last year, it was down to the wire when the Apple TV Plus sophomore season picked up awards for actors Jason Sudeikis and Brett Goldstein, plus director MJ Delaney, but ABC’s freshman series surprised with a casting award, an acting win for Sheryl Lee Ralph, and a writing victory for star/creator Quinta Brunson. Ultimately “Ted Lasso” pulled it out and it could have somewhat of a farewell narrative with its recent season this year, but a surge in “Abbott Elementary” means it has a dog in this fight for Best Comedy Series.

In Gold Derby’s Emmy odds update, “Ted Lasso” is still sitting comfortably on top with 9/2 odds with 11 Expert journalists, eight Editors, 12 Top 24 users, and 13 All-Star Top 24 predicting it for the win. This third season of the sports comedy was still able to shine with its touching, poignant moments that gave it its series trophies for the previous two seasons. But it is still uncertain whether the show has officially concluded. The finale of Season 3 gave audiences an ending for the character of Ted Lasso, which perhaps may propel voters to award Sudeikis and the show one more time. Its Emmy success will also be determined if the series can maintain its acting nomination tally with continual nominees Goldstein, Hannah Waddingham, Nick Mohammed, Juno Temple, or first-timers like Phil Dunster.

“Abbott Elementary” has an opportunity to increase its nominations tally for Season 2, like many shows do after performing so well in their first outings. It is in second place with 5/1 odds and four Experts and three Editors forecasting a win, with both Top 24 user groups almost split down in the middle (nine Top 24 users and seven All-Stars). The sophomore season has already been proven to have momentum, winning the main award at the Golden Globes, Critics Choices, and Screen Actors Guild Awards (all of which “Ted Lasso” was not eligible). Actors Brunson and Tyler James Williams both picked up Globes while Ralph nabbed a Critics Choice win. With “Hacks” and Emmy winner Jean Smart out of the running, Brunson has a good shot of securing Best Comedy Actress and the workplace mockumentary can not only pick up additional acting and writing wins, but can potentially include more cast members to the mix like Lisa Ann Walter, Chris Perfetti and William Stanford Davis.

Holding out hope with its newcomer status is “The Bear” at 13/2 with three Experts supporting it. The Hulu series has also received some hardware over the winter awards, surprising with two major guild wins over “Abbott Elementary” with the Writers Guild and Producers Guild of America Awards. Its dramatic intensity may be a hurdle it has to overcome, but the second season is set to release during nominations voting for its first, a strategy that has helped many shows in the past. Leading star Jeremy Allen White has triumphed at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and SAG Awards, while Ayo Edebiri was nominated at Critics Choice and won the Independent Spirit Award over her co-star Ebon Moss-Bachrach.

Right behind are perennial nominees “Only Murders in the Building” at 8/1 odds, “Barry” at 17/2 and “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” at 12/1, the latter two competing for their final seasons. All three shows have done very well for their past seasons getting acting, writing and directing nominations to go with Best Comedy Series, so it will be a test to see what they can sustain, especially with actors that have yet to receive nominations (Selena Gomez for “Only Murders in the Building”) or have recently fallen out (Stephen Root and Sarah Goldberg for “Barry” and Marin Hinkle for “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”).

And watch out for some other novice shows as the odds have “Poker Face” and “Wednesday” completing the category with 14/1 and 16/1 odds, respectively. These offerings are also strong in our odds for their leading actresses, Natasha Lyonne (“Poker Face”) and Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”).

In ninth place, newbie “Shrinking” is at 25/1 and has a chance of getting in, led by star Jason Segel and the creatives of “Ted Lasso,” with Harrison Ford in the cast. And “What We Do The Shadows” at 28/1 has been recognized in the category for the last two seasons, supported by its yearly multiple writing nominations.

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12

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