How will Emmys newcomer Jeremy Allen White (‘The Bear’) fare against multiple final-season nominees?

When Jason Sudeikis won the 2021 Best Comedy Actor Emmy for “Ted Lasso,” he followed 11 other men who had also taken the prize for first-season performances. What made his victory particularly special was that he was the first member of this group to earn his spot by prevailing against multiple final-season nominees, whereas most of his predecessors had faced none. Just two years later, he could be joined in that distinction by potential Emmys newcomer Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”), who may find himself in contention with concluded series stars Bill Hader (“Barry”) and Donald Glover (“Atlanta”), as well as Sudeikis himself.

White, who has already won Golden Globe, Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards for his portrayal of stressed-out chef Carmy Berzatto on Hulu’s “The Bear,” recently took the first-place position on Gold Derby’s odds-based comedy actor predictions list.

Now running second after holding the top slot for months is Sudeikis, the third season of whose show is probably going to be its last. When he achieved his first of two consecutive wins for the Apple TV Plus series, his challengers included farewell nominees Michael Douglas (“The Kominsky Method”) and William H. Macy (“Shameless”).

If White ends up triumphing over just one final-season nominee (which could very well be the case if “Ted Lasso” actually isn’t over), he would be the category’s fifth first-season winner to do so. Two of the previous instances involved Jack Klugman (“The Odd Couple,” 1971) and Richard Mulligan (“Empty Nest,” 1989) respectively beating Ted Bessell (“That Girl”) and Michael J. Fox (“Family Ties”), who had both firmly finished playing their characters. In the other two cases, Phil Silvers (“The Phil Silvers Show,” 1956) and Jeffrey Tambor (“Transparent,” 2015) defeated Jackie Gleason (“The Honeymooners”) and Louis C.K. (“Louie”), whose shows had not officially concluded but had in fact reached their final seasons.

Past comedy actor champions Glover (2017) and Hader (2018 and 2019) belong to the subset of first-season winners who did not compete against any final-season nominees. The other five men on this list are William Windom (“My World and Welcome to It,” 1970), Burt Reynolds (“Evening Shade,” 1991), Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier,” 1994), John Lithgow (“3rd Rock from the Sun,” 1996) and Tony Shalhoub (“Monk,” 2003). Like Hader and Sudeikis, Grammer, Lithgow and Shalhoub went on to win for these programs again, as did Klugman and Tambor.

Since White is bound to face at least one final-season nominee and such showdowns in this category have always led to newcomer wins, his frontrunner status makes complete sense. Even Mulligan was able to block Fox from snagging a fourth consecutive trophy, so White can certainly stop a Sudeikis three-peat, or even a Hader or Glover comeback. Judging by these factors and his televised awards haul so far, his path to victory couldn’t be clearer.

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12

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