Unusual start to the tropical season
AUSTIN (KXAN) -- As June winds down it's clear that the starts of both the Atlantic and eastern Pacific hurricane seasons are, for lack of a better word, backward.
The Atlantic basin's hurricane season, which includes the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, started June 1. Three named storms made June more active than normal. Tropical Storm Arlene formed on June 2 in the Gulf of Mexico. It died the next day.
Tropical Storm Bret was "born" on June 19 and was forecast to become the first hurricane of the season. That did not happen as Bret's winds never reached 74 mph. This storm died on June 24.
Tropical Storm Cindy formed on June 22. It is weakening and will likely be gone on Monday, June 26.
For a few days, there were two storms in the central Caribbean. Hurricane experts suggest it to be a rare event given that this tropical zone remains a bit quiet in June. They also suggest the warm water of the ocean are allowing for high heat that allows these systems to develop.
But the obvious factor is that sea-surface temperatures in the open Atlantic are at levels not noticed until later on in the summer. Reports show these temperatures running several degrees higher than what is considered normal for June. Normal is 84° but the highest so far this year is 87°.
Yes, three degrees does make a big difference.
Then, there's El Niño which leads to a less active tropical storm/hurricane season due to increased wind shear detrimental to tropical storm development.
The Eastern Pacific hurricane season started on May 15. It starts one-half of a month sooner than its Atlantic counterpart because the environment is more conducive to earlier development, and that includes hurricanes.
However, as we approach the end of June, we are still waiting for the first named storm. There has not only been a named storm but there has yet to be a tropical depression.
Yes, there have been a couple of areas of low pressure but the winds have not been high enough for a tropical depression to form.
By this time in 2022, the eastern Pacific was quite busy with three named storms. Hurricane Agatha lived from May 28 to 31. Hurricane Blas' lifetime started June 14 and ended on June 19. Tropical Storm Celia was active for 12 days, starting on June 16 and expiring on June 28.
The eastern Pacific usually sees about 10% of its annual tropical activity by the end of June. But, so far? Nothing. This is the latest start to the eastern Pacific season since 2019. While the actual season begins on May 15, it's the first tropical cyclone to form that data begins to be kept.
It's also the fourth latest start since the 21st century began.
It may be a head-scratcher to figure out why. The waters in the eastern Pacific are warmer than normal. This is especially true closer to the equator from the current El Niño. And, when there is an El Niño, the Eastern Pacific tends to be busy.
Hurricane experts suggest an active western Pacific is limiting development in the eastern Pacific. There have been three typhoons in the western Pacific so far, the most notable being Super Typhoon Mawar (Category 5 with winds estimated at 160 mph). These storms and the rising air in the western Pacific have led to sinking air in the eastern Pacific. In other words, there's a lid on disturbances trying to form.
July is a busier month so it may only be a matter of time before Adrian becomes a part of our weathercasts.
An inactive start in the Pacific and an active start in the Atlantic. Both add to this unusual weather.
Now you know.