Invasive pneumococcal disease among the elderly in the later era of paediatric pneumococcal conjugate vaccination—A longitudinal study over 10 years based on public surveillance data in the Nordics

by Andreas Palmborg, Mette Skovdal, Tor Molden, Heidi Åhman, Lingjing Chen, Jonas Banefelt

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) have proven effective in preventing both non-invasive and invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) in small children and in older age groups. However, long-term observations and country comparisons of IPD incidence in the elderly following introduction of PCVs in paediatric national immunisation programmes (NIPs) are scarce. We aimed to estimate and compare incidence of IPD in the elderly in Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden over a 10-year time span. During the study period Denmark and Norway used PCV13 in their paediatric NIP, Sweden both PCV10 and PCV13 and Finland used PCV10. Uptake of pneumococcal vaccines for the elderly was low.

We collected longitudinal data on confirmed IPD cases and their serotypes among elderly people (aged ≥65 years) 2010–2019 in the four countries of interest. Annual IPD incidence rates were calculated per country, by vaccine-associated serotypes (PCV10, PCV13, PCV15, PCV20 and PPV23) and for non-vaccine serotypes. A regression model was used to estimate average annual change in incidence in each country.

Incidence rates of IPD in the elderly in 2019 ranged from 31.4 to 41.8 per 100,000 people across the countries. Denmark and Norway showed an annual average decline in IPD incidence (-3.3; 95% CI: -5.6 to -1.1; p<0.01) and (-3.3; 95% CI: -5.5 to -1.0; p<0.01) respectively from 2010 to 2019, whereas no change was seen for Sweden (-0.5; 95% CI: -1.9 to 0.8; p = 0.39) or Finland (0.9; 95% CI: -1.0 to 2.7; p = 0.32). IPD incidence due to emerging serotypes, e.g., serotypes 8 and 12F, has increased. Serotype 19A remained a major cause of IPD in countries with PCV10 in paediatric NIPs.

Despite paediatric PCV programmes, a considerable vaccine preventable IPD burden remains in the elderly. Further, choice of PCV in paediatric programs was associated with differences in serotype distribution and incidence amongst the elderly. Direct vaccination of the elderly with recently approved broad coverage PCVs holds promise for meaningful impact on disease burden with PCV20 covering a majority of IPD amongst the elderly in the four studied countries. Effectiveness of new vaccines in real-life clinical practice should be followed.