Why some NBA trade values have plummeted with the new collective bargaining agreement

John Collins and Jordan Poole were seemingly traded for pennies on the dollar.

Roster construction philosophies around the NBA have changed dramatically over the course of the past few weeks.

We have seen legitimately good players like Bradley Beal, Jordan Poole and John Collins get traded for what feels like pennies on the dollar compared to what they may have fetched in previous offseasons.

It is all thanks to a new collective bargaining agreement that was ratified by the NBA and the NBPA in April. The CBA doesn’t go into effect until July 1, but it has already created ripple effects in front offices around the league.

My colleague, Mike Sykes, provided more details:

“The players agreed to a new CBA that introduced more draconian penalties for teams like the Warriors, Clippers and more who love to go deep into the luxury tax to retain their talent and keep their rosters competitive. Once teams pass a certain point in spending, they’ll lose access to key roster-building tools. The NBA will revoke their taxpayer mid-level exception, they’ll be barred from signing players on the buyout market during the season and they aren’t able to trade for more money than they send out. They’re also unable to trade draft picks seven years out.”

As noted by Sykes, this is very different than the penalties in previous collective bargaining agreements. Teams are desperately trying to avoid the “second apron” (which is $17.5 million above the luxury tax, currently set at $165 million for next season).

In the past, teams would only have additional fiscal responsibilities owed if they crossed into the luxury tax threshold. Starting soon, however, teams will also have on-court consequences for spending more than other teams.

Front offices losing access to contractual necessities like the mid-level exception or the buyout market could have a dramatic impact on the talent they can have on the roster.

We have already seen players like Beal (owed $46.7 million next season), Poole (owed $27.9 million) and Collins (owed $25.3 million) each traded without netting their original team a first-round draft pick or a young asset in return.

But according to Jake Fischer, this is perhaps only the beginning (via Yahoo):

“A new collective bargaining agreement has introduced a slew of different cap restrictions and challenges for roster construction. There is a sentiment among league personnel in Chicago this upcoming offseason will be busy with player movement and franchise-altering transactions.”

So that means other players on massive deals who are not performing at a star caliber right now but still have multiple years left on their deals could potentially get moved in the coming few weeks.

Conversely, teams with additional and flexible cap space could potentially land big-name talents without surrendering much in return.

Especially if a player is on a team that could approach the second apron, a trade may be on the horizon at a diminished value.

Some of those names could potentially include Deandre Ayton, Tyler Herro, CJ McCollum, Julius Randle, Anfernee Simons, RJ Barrett, Terry Rozier and maybe even 2023 NBA champion Michael Porter Jr.

That’s why it’s more likely that someone like Ayton, who has never made an All-Star team but is on a max contract, has a value at an all-time low and not an all-time high.