CONCACAF Gold Cup Group Stages: USA vs. Saint Kitts and Nevis

Fresh off a first-place finish in the CONCACAF Nations League, the United States soccer team entered the 2023 Gold Cup with a different approach than usual – leaving their best players at home. Matt Turner is the only USMNT starter from June 18th’s final against Canada. Their lack of quality showed in a disappointing 1-1 draw on opening day against Jamaica.

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The Yanks now turn towards Wednesday, where they will take on Saint Kitts and Nevis in a must-win game.

• Location: CityPark | St. Louis, Missouri
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET | TV: FS1

The USA is the defending champion in this tournament and enters the competition searching for a record-tying eighth Gold Cup, and are second favorites to do so at +225 despite fielding a weakened team. The Stars and Stripes are fielding a roster that features seven players that traveled to the 2022 FIFA World Cup while mixing in some fresh faces, as more than half the squad has six or fewer caps with the National Team.

Saint Kitts and Nevis are happy to be here, qualifying by the skin of their teeth and winning consecutive penalty shootouts in the previous rounds. It’s their first appearance in a CONCACAF tournament. The Sugar Boyz have not beaten a non-Caribbean nation in 12 years and got dismantled 3-0 by Trinidad and Tobago on opening day. 

• USA ML (-4500) | Draw (+2200) | SKN ML (+6000)
• Total Goals: OVER 4.5 (-188) | UNDER 4.5 (+137)

Goal differential will likely determine who wins the group after the USA and Jamaica tie. Hence, the Americans know this is an opportunity to run up the score against a weaker opponent. Saint Kitts and Nevis are ranked 139th in the FIFA rankings compared to USA’s 13th. 

Saint Kitts and Nevis will try to defend similarly to Jamaica and can blame nerves for their collapse on opening day. They probably won’t win the match, but they can defend well and frustrate the USA.

• Under 4.5 Total Goals (+137) 
• USA Win + Under 5.5 Total Goals (+100)

Although the USA needs to score as many goals as possible, this squad still has much to prove before I put money on them doing so. Take UNDER 4.5 total goals in this game at +137. The value here is too good to pass up. 

USA has only had one total go over 2.5 goals over their past five games. Furthermore, this weakened side struggled to create opportunities against Jamaica, and since this is a must-win game for both teams, I expect Saint Kitts and Nevis to keep the Americans in check for stretches of the game.

I’m expecting a 3-0 or 4-0 win for the Yanks, which would be more than enough to keep the USA in the race for first place.

If you are hesitant to take the UNDER 4.5 goals, an alternative would be taking a Result/Total Goals parlay. Take the USA on the moneyline and parlay it with UNDER 5.5 total goals at +100.

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