Forecasters watching three disturbances; one could form in Gulf

A dormant August stretch of storm activity in the tropics has concluded with the forecast of three disturbances: two in the Atlantic near Africa and one yet to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico.  .

A tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of Africa’s west coast on Wednesday that is producing disorganized showers. Forecasters said that it could become a tropical depression in the next few days as it moves west or west-northwest. As of 2 a.m. Wednesday, it had a 20% chance of developing in the next 48 hours and a 40% chance in the next seven days.

A second wave along Africa’s west coast is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. It has low odds of developing — at just 10% in the 48 hours and 30% in the next seven days. Forecasters’ latest outlook stated environmental conditions would become “unfavorable” for further development by early next week.

Forecasters are also watching for the development of a broad area of low pressure in the central or western Gulf of Mexico that could form by the beginning of next week. Slow development is possible as it moves west. It has a 20% chance of developing in the next seven days, the hurricane center said.

The next named storm would be Emily.

The National Hurricane Center is now predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season, increasing the likelihood from only a 30% chance in its last outlook to a 60% chance going forward.

The update announced Thursday comes as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.

While sea surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.

The NHC, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, is now calling for 14-21 named storms, including 6-11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.