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2023

Emmy predictions: Are we underestimating ‘Fleishman is in Trouble’ for Best Movie/Limited Writing?

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As of this writing, based on the combined predictions of Gold Derby users, “Beef” is the frontrunner to win Best Movie/Limited Writing with 69/20 odds at this year’s Emmys for the episode “The Birds Don’t Sing, They Screech in Pain.” In second place with 4/1 odds is “Fleishman is in Trouble.” Almost every episode of the latter is written by the author of the show’s source material, Taffy Brodesser-Akner. One of them, “Me-Time,” earned her a nomination in this category. Could she be a dark horse to win?

“Fleishman is in Trouble” follows Toby Fleishman (Jesse Eisenberg), a recently divorced man in his 40s using dating apps for the first time. As he starts to experience the kind of romantic success he never achieved in his youth, his ex-wife Rachel (Claire Danes) disappears without a trace, leaving him with their children, Hannah (Meara Mahoney Gross) and Solly (Maxim Jasper Swinton). Toby realizes that he will never be able to figure out what happened to his wife until he can be more honest about what happened in their marriage.

The series was created by Brodsser-Akner, adapted from her own 2019 novel of the same name. The nominees and winners of the writing categories at the Emmys can only be voted on by members of the writers branch, and a number of them could be impressed by that feat. After all, it’s rare for the original author to serve as showrunner on an adaptation of their work. Though it’s not the first time someone has been recognized by the Emmys in this category for that kind of thing.

For instance, in 2000, David Simon won this Emmy category for adapting his and Ed Burns‘s nonfiction book, “The Corner,” into a miniseries with David Mills. In 2004 Tony Kusher won for adapting his stage play “Angels in America” into a six-part miniseries. In 2005 Richard Russo was nominated for writing the two-part adaptation of his 2001 novel “Empire Falls.” And in 2020 Sally Rooney was nominated for co-writing the third episode of the adaptation of her 2018 novel “Normal People” with Alice Birch.

At the WGA Awards earlier this year, “Fleishman is in Trouble” was nominated for Best TV Limited Series, but lost to the second season of “The White Lotus.” “White Lotus” is also contending at this year’s Emmys, but thankfully for “Fleishman,” it’s in the drama categories and not in movie/limited anymore since its second season reintroduced a recurring character. As mentioned above, Brodesser-Akner wrote all of “Fleishman” with the exception of episode three (“Free Pass”), which was written by Mike Goldbach. She’s specifically nominated for the penultimate episode, “Me-Time,” which also happens to be nominated for Best Movie/Limited Series Directing.

“Beef” may be the frontrunner to win Best Limited Series, but it may not need to take the writing award to go along with it. In 2010, for example, “The Pacific” won Best Limited Series, but lost writing to the TV movie “You Don’t Know Jack.” In 2014 the first season of “Fargo” won Best Limited Series, but lost writing to “Sherlock.” In 2017 the first season of “Big Little Lies” won Best Limited Series, but lost writing to “Black Mirror.” In 2018 “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” won Best Limited Series, but for the second year in a row “Black Mirror” pulled off an upset in the writing race. And in 2021 “The Queen’s Gambit” won Best Limited Series, but lost writing to “I May Destroy You.”

So there’s plenty of precedent for those two awards splitting. Regardless of what happens in the top category, could “Fleishman” be the real show to beat in the scripting contest?

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?




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