2023 Emmy Predictions: Best Comedy Actress

Now that she doesn’t have to worry about fending off Emmy darling Jean Smart (“Hacks”), Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) is well on her way to following Rue McClanahan (“The Golden Girls,” 1987) and Tina Fey (“30 Rock,” 2008) as the third woman to score her first Best Comedy Actress win on her second try. However, although her path to victory is clearer than before, she is the presumed frontrunner for the second year in a row and thus might simply end up being passed over again.

Included among Brunson’s 2023 challengers is Rachel Brosnahan (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”), who won this award in 2018 and also lost to Smart last year on her fourth outing. Also part of this lineup’s repeat contender majority is Christina Applegate, who is on her third “Dead to Me” bid. The remaining slots are filled by new series stars Natasha Lyonne (“Poker Face”) and Jenna Ortega (“Wednesday”).

In order to discern the true likelihood of Brunson winning, let’s take a closer look at each nominee. Be sure to visit our predictions center to make your own picks in this and 25 other Primetime Emmy categories.

Christina Applegate as Jen Harding (“Dead to Me”)
Episode: “We’ve Reached the End”

Before being nominated for this series in 2019 and 2020, Applegate twice competed for this award as the star of “Samantha Who?” (2008-2009). In her aptly titled episode submission, the recently retired actress helps conclude the story of unconventional friends Jen and Judy (Linda Cardellini), who spend some wonderful days together in Mexico before the latter succumbs to her cancer.

Rachel Brosnahan as Midge Maisel (“The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”)
Episode: “Four Minutes”

Brosnahan’s nomination for her series’ final episode makes her part of a select group of lead actresses who earned TV academy recognition for every one of their shows’ five or more seasons. After winning for her pilot performance, she could now be honored for last appearance as Midge Maisel, which involves the stand-up comedian permanently securing her star status by unabashedly claiming her spotlight.

Quinta Brunson as Janine Teagues (“Abbott Elementary”)
Episode: “Teacher Conference”

Brunson, who created this network sitcom and won a 2022 Emmy for writing its premiere episode, could now follow Isabel Sanford (“The Jeffersons,” 1981) as the second Black woman to conquer this category. In her chosen episode, plucky second grade teacher Janine attends a work conference during which she bonds with her coworker, Gregory Eddie (Tyler James Williams), who kisses her for the first time as the two covertly explore a closed exhibit.

Natasha Lyonne as Charlie Cale (“Poker Face”)
Episode: “Dead Man’s Hand”

Lyonne, who was previously nominated here for “Russian Doll” (2019) and in the comedy guest category for “Orange is the New Black” (2014), is now competing as the star of this mystery series built around the premise of a human lie detector continually finding herself involved in murder cases as she runs from her dangerous former boss. In the first episode, Charlie narrowly escapes her hometown of Laughlin, Nevada, after becoming too deeply embroiled in trying to nail her slain casino coworker’s killer.

Jenna Ortega as Wednesday Addams (“Wednesday”)
Episode: “Friend or Woe”

At just 20 years old, Ortega is the second youngest contender in this category’s seven-decade history, after Patty Duke (17, “The Patty Duke Show,” 1964). On this new series, the former Disney Channel star plays the lead role of Wednesday Addams, who is reintroduced to fans of her endearingly odd family as an especially troubled teenager. “Friend or Woe” finds her becoming more involved in a murder investigation occurring on the grounds of her new private school and becoming a target herself.

So, who will win the 2023 Emmy for Best Comedy Actress? Since this category’s only case of a repeat single-series champion experiencing more than one loss between successive wins involved Jean Stapleton (“All in the Family”) in the 1970s, Brosnahan is basically out, especially since Stapleton’s show almost swept the 1978 Emmys and “Maisel” (with its lack of male acting nominees) has no chance of doing so this year. Also in trouble is Applegate, who would have to overcome two decades worth of apparent bias against initially honoring comedic lead actresses past their second nominations.

Since the largest chunk (27%) of Best Comedy Actress victors have hailed from freshman series, Brunson should definitely be leery of Lyonne and Ortega, especially considering the former’s unexpected success at the 2023 Television Critics Association Awards. In truth, that prestigious triumph brings this race down to Lyonne and Brunson, the latter of whom’s status as the star of a relatively new Best Comedy Series nominee makes her the safer bet.

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