Hurricane Lee forecast for rapid intensification, with top winds potentially reaching 155 mph
The “rapid intensification” of Hurricane Lee is forecast to begin Thursday as it ramps up to a major Category 4 hurricane with potential top wind speeds of 155 mph, that could bring “life-threatening” swells and possible tropical storm conditions to areas of the far eastern Caribbean, the National Hurricane Center said.
Swells generated by Lee are expected to reach portions of the Lesser Antilles on Friday, and reach the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Bahamas and Bermuda this weekend. There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on some of these islands over the weekend, according to the latest advisory.
“No direct impacts to South Florida are expected at this time,” the National Weather Service in Miami said Tuesday night on X, the social media platform formerly known as Twitter. Officials have warned Floridians, amid peak hurricane season, to ensure their storm supplies are ready.
As of 5 a.m. Thursday, Lee was 965 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands, the eastern boundary of the Caribbean. Lee was moving west-northwest at 13 mph with maximum sustained winds of 80 mph. Tropical-storm-force winds reached up to 90 miles from Lee’s center, and hurricane-force winds reached up to 15 miles out.
Forecasters say Lee will be a major hurricane by early Friday.
Its forecast track shows the hurricane headed in the general direction of the Bahamas and potentially Florida. But it is too early to know exactly how close the system will get to the islands of the eastern Caribbean.
“There is the potential for tropical storm conditions to occur on some of these islands over the weekend,” the National Hurricane Center’s latest update said.
The current cone indicating the probable path of the eye of the storm sits just north of Puerto Rico, Haiti and the Dominican Republic.
“The high pressure to the north of it, that’s what’s going to steer it,” said Anthony Reynes, senior forecaster with the National Weather Service in Miami.
“Tropical systems, they cannot go against the flow of the high pressure, they have to go around it … once it moves to the north of Puerto Rico, it’s going to start shifting more to the north and eventually northeast. The cyclone is moving around the edge of that high.”
There also will be a low pressure trough moving east over the U.S. that should also contribute to the northward motion of the storm, he said.
The system will be traveling over record-warm water, close to 86 degrees.
Lee is the fourth Atlantic hurricane of the 2023 season, behind Don, Franklin and Idalia, and will be the third major hurricane, meaning Category 3 or above. Franklin and Idalia were major hurricanes.
Another tropical depression is likely to form later in the week from a tropical wave near Africa as it moves west-northwest toward the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Its disorganized showers and thunderstorms were spreading over the Cabo Verde islands off of Africa on early Thursday, the hurricane center’s latest update said.
As of 2 a.m. Thursday, its odds of developing were at 80% within seven days, and 60% within two days.
Meanwhile, the remnants of Hurricane Franklin were given a 20% chance of gaining “some subtropical or tropical characteristics” over the warm waters to the west-northwest of the northwestern coast of Spain. It is not expected to further develop after Thursday.
The National Hurricane Center, which operates under the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration, has forecast 14 to 21 named storms, including six to 11 hurricanes, and two to five major hurricanes.
The National Hurricane Center has been predicting an “above-normal” 2023 hurricane season as a result of ongoing record-breaking sea surface temperatures that continue to fight off the tempering effects of El Niño.
While sea-surface temperatures have remained hot for longer than anticipated, El Niño’s effects, which typically reduce hurricane chances, have emerged more slowly.