Emmy Experts Typing: Debating the trickiest limited categories one last time (for now)

Welcome to Emmy Experts Typing, a weekly column in which Gold Derby editors and Experts Joyce Eng and Christopher Rosen discuss the Emmy race — via Slack, of course. This week, in our midseason finale, we go over the limited races that have us perplexed.

Christopher Rosen: Hello, Joyce! It’s Friday and we’ve finally reached the midseason finale of this marathon Emmy season. As we’ve typed and talked about, the 2023 Emmys will take place in early 2024, a decision made by its broadcast partner with which I disagree dot gif. Next week, we’ll rev up the Oscar Experts Typing series, and I’ll readily admit the analytical part of my brain has already started wondering how many nominations films like “The Zone of Interest” and “Anatomy of a Fall” might land (spoiler: many!). But let’s give the folks what they want one last time until 2024, and breeze through the Emmy races for limited series. To be clear, I haven’t made any big changes — I’m high on “Beef” to the tune of wins for series, actor for Steven Yeun, actress for Ali Wong and supporting actor for Young Mazino. That last prediction makes me an outlier, but I’ll go down with the ship and the favored academy show rather than put my chips on Paul Walter Hauser, no matter how much I enjoy his work (and I hope that rumor about him starring in the new Quentin Tarantino movie pans out). But while I’m fully for “Beef,” I actually moved off it completely in two key categories. Over in the directing category, showrunner Lee Sung Jin is the odds-on favorite to win for the show’s finale and penultimate episode director Jake Schreier is running in third. But I’ve zigged to the ostensible and potential runner-up: Paris Barclay for “Dahmer — Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story.” Barclay is a television legend who hasn’t won an Emmy since the 1990s, but I think the popularity of “Monster” and his visibility on the rocky campaign trail is enough to maybe push him ahead of Lee (who is a first-time director) and Schreier. Meanwhile, in the writing category, most people expect Lee to win for “Beef” and that makes sense because it’s the favorite to win for series. But I can’t help but feel like Taffy Brodesser-Akner will prevail for “Fleishman Is in Trouble,” the “writing show” that won raves from critics and overperformed in the nominations. Maybe I’m picking with my heart here, since I loved “Fleishman” the most out of all these nominees, but I think I want to stick with it — even if my head says, “Duh, it’s Lee for ‘Beef.’” What do you think about these categories, Joyce? Will I go 0 for 2?

joyceeng61: If you have “Beef” for series, the safest bet is to have it winning both or one of them if you wanna take a gamble in the other category. No show under this voting system has won Best Limited Series without a directing or a writing victory. “The People v. O.J. Simpson: American Crime Story” won writing; “Big Little Lies” took directing; “The Assassination of Gianni Versace” claimed directing; “Chernobyl” swept both; “Watchmen” bagged writing; “The Queen’s Gambit,” unforgettably for the wrong reasons, prevailed in directing; and “The White Lotus” won both. “O.J.” and “Watchmen” were victims of the triple vote-split in directing and very likely would’ve won that with one fewer nominee. The shows that won directing were either helmed by one person (“Big Little Lies,” “Chernobyl,” “The Queen’s Gambit” and “The White Lotus”) or just had one episode nominated (“Versace”), so there was no potential for a split. “Beef” is a tricky proposition with two nominees. You can predict the right show but the wrong episode. “Figures of Light” is out front, but like I’ve said, I don’t know if people are just predicting that because it’s the finale directed by the showrunner and creator. I abandoned “Fleishman” for “The Great Fabricator” the other day because it could be like when we were all predicting the wrong “Succession” and “The Crown” episodes to win and the other nominee triumphed. The closest comp for your argument for “Fleishman” in writing is Michaela Coel winning for “I May Destroy You,” but there was a ton more passion for her back then than there ostensibly is for Brodesser-Akner (no shade). Also, let’s say “Beef’s” directing nominees do split the vote. The winner would then likely be the series runner-up, which is arguably “Fleishman,” based on its nomination performance, not “Dahmer,” which is missing writing. Every directing winner since 2016 has at least been nominated in writing as well. The wild card here is Dan Trachtenberg for “Prey,” which is a film, but is the only program in the lineup that can claim to be entirely directed by one person. I suppose you might also be asking if “Beef” is strong enough to join the ranks of “Chernobyl” and “The White Lotus,” both of which were way bigger phenomenons, in winning both categories. But as we know, the struggle was real this year in limited, so maybe?

SEE Experts slugfest: Our 2023 Emmys midseason finale

Christopher Rosen: So what you’re typing is that I should probably go back to “Beef” in one of these categories when we make our final predictions early next year. In which case, it would probably be in the directing category and, I guess, Lee — although I think Schreier’s episode is flashier and more action-packed which might give it an advantage over the more avant-garde finale. Although x2: I’ve also toyed with Trachtenberg, who I have in second place right now — but I think the “Prey” victory will come not in directing but rather in the movie category against the favorite “Weird.” That comedy performed well enough in the nominations, but I think the writing and directing selections for “Prey” show it has a lot of support — and, pound for pound, it’s absolutely the better movie. I don’t know if that matters, but maybe it does. As for “Beef,” I’ve also got it winning in the casting category — I spoke to the show’s Emmy-nominated casting directors so I’m obviously in the tank for them. It seems like a no-brainer, but can you make the case for anyone else — perhaps my beloved “Daisy Jones”?

joyceeng61: You can for all of them, but it’ll probably just be “Beef.” Since 2016, every limited series champ has won casting except “Chernobyl,” which lost to “When They See Us,” but that loss makes sense and was expected at the time too. You made a switch the other day to Niecy Nash-Betts in supporting actress over Claire Danes. That is the overwhelming consensus — she has nearly five time as many predictions to win than Danes does. She’d be a great winner and I would not be the least shocked if it happens, but I can’t help but feel this might be Kathryn Hahn vs. Julianne Nicholson 2.0. Nash-Betts (Hahn) is the people’s choice by far, but Danes (Nicholson) is the one with the knockout tape from a show we know they watched and loved who ultimately prevails. Will you stick with Nash-Betts in four months and seven days?

SEE Emmy Experts Typing: Is the Best Comedy Actor race closer than it looks?

Christopher Rosen: This is one of those categories where… I’m not sure. If I went with my heart and switched back to Danes, I wonder if I’d feel like a dummy if Nash-Betts won. But if Danes won, well, then I’d feel like a rube too, since I went with the consensus instead of my initial pick. So, the long way to answer that is: probably, maybe, definitely? Fortunately, I don’t have to think about this again until after the holidays. Joyce, before we go, any Christmas wishes for the 2023 Emmys (2024 edition)?

joyceeng61: My wish is for the Emmys to be in the year of our Lord 2023, but alas. Maybe I should switch to Nash-Betts just to manifest her and Hauser winning their Emmys on the one-year anniversary of their Critics Choice victories. That would delight me just as much as Jeremy Allen White winning awards for two seasons of “The Bear” a day apart. Just amazing work all around. So I guess see you next year.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?